Details about the latest missile strike. Unique 2.0 for this week and phase of the war.
The previous analysis of the strike this week caused a stir with 12k likes and millions of views. Thank you for your attention, and I want to remind you again that I do not disclose anything, I only analyze from open sources.
The main thing is that our air defense forces are gods. Last time, a record of 14 out of 18 ballistic missiles were shot down; now, 9 out of 12 very complex Kh-32 missiles have been intercepted!
The role of headquarters and how ordinary strikes differ from unique ones was explained earlier. This strike is again unique and was again directed by the General Staff of the Russian Federation. Due to the first-time use in recent years of Kh-32 missiles and Tu-22m3 aircraft.
The strike had at least three objectives.
1. To show strength and impunity before the negotiation process in the UAE. That we “can do even more next time if our conditions are not met.”
2. Energy. To cause a blackout in Kyiv and Kharkiv. This objective implies that the people might turn against the authorities to stop this cold in the homes and blackout. And also to help the first objective, making us make a demarche and leave the negotiation process. Show the world (and of course, more to the Americans, who constantly suggest that we do not want to end the war) that we do not want peace, left the negotiations in the UAE.
3. Reducing our stock of PAC-3 missiles for the Patriot system, which our allies replenished after the New Year. And this needs a separate and more detailed explanation. Because this is about depleting exactly these missiles…
In my last post there was a third point about the work of both intelligence services. And few noticed it. So the enemies roughly know how much PAC-3 missiles we received to intercept hypersonic and ballistic missiles. We have nothing else that can counter such missiles. And therefore, for the second strike this week, most missiles are extremely difficult for all systems, but not for the PAC-3 interceptors. Interceptors, as they say in the West.
And one more interesting fact – the letter in the name Patriot can mean Intercept if you decipher the name as an acronym: Phased Array Tracking Radar to Intercept of Target. (Well, I love to show you details and interesting facts 😉).
To the details!
Rocket launches: aeroballistic Kinzhal, hypersonic Zircon, ballistic Iskander-M, and now anti-ship Kh-32 – all for the purpose of the first two points, and most importantly – to deplete our PAC-3 reserves.
They also cannot do it all massively to immediately overload the air defense system in one attack. You also monitor all massive attacks (not regular attacks of up to 100 Shaheds every other day). That’s why ballistic and Kh-32 missile launches were alternated this night. They calculated what we could shoot down, what we had left, how many they had, and what was needed for the next launch. This is multi-million dollar reconnaissance by missile combat. Yes, we are observing this already. 21st-century warfare on the march, and we are at the forefront.
That’s why there may be discrepancies with what people see/hear about the interception/ non-interception of missiles, and the Air Force reports different numbers. The use of PAC-3 missiles is also taken into account, and will be used in the next attack.
The next attack will also aim to deplete our PAC-3 missiles. Thereby, they will not use the super-expensive Kinzhal missiles. A Kh-32 missile costs them $3 million. A PAC-3 missile to intercept it costs $4-5 million. And the cost of the Kinzhal is definitely higher. It’s simply the mathematics of war, and now they started counting the money. Finally.
Of course, the ballistic Iskander-M is cheaper and does not require aircraft for its launch, but they are fewer in number, and their range is significantly smaller. To reach Kyiv from 500 km away, you need to transport a launch system. Even a Tu-22 makes launches from 600 km.
Therefore, the next attacks will also involve ballistic missiles. And while it’s frosty, the likelihood of a quick readiness for the next attack is high. Pay attention to warning signals, go to shelters when you see messages from monitors that a missile strike is being prepared. If needed, write in the comments, I also know when they are definitely preparing a missile attack. I will warn you.
Regarding Zircons, it’s another paired launch. Again, a ground launch from Crimea. Last time it was aimed at the Vinnytsia region, testing distance and the possibility of launching from the ground. The missile is usually launched from a ship, but they already adapted it for a ground launch system. Now it flies across all of Ukraine from Crimea to Kyiv, testing a flight range of up to 1000 km. The uniqueness of the Zircon is that it maintains a constant speed of many Machs throughout its flight path, which is not as high as ballistic missiles. 30-40 km, while Iskander can rise up to 60 km in the stratosphere, along with the Kinzhal. And now we did not intercept them, possibly because the Patriot battery radars were facing another direction, although I don’t have access to classified information.
And this is definitely stretching the batteries, so that some begin to “look” South. Then it will be easier for them to break through from the North and reach the first two points. But we understand everything 😉.
I wanted to be brief, and it seems I succeeded. I await your reactions, I will explain more in the comments. And I repeat – despite the critical situation in Kyiv, think about if we had intercepted 50% less. What would have happened then…
Air Defense – the gods of our time!
P.S. In the photo, the Tu-22M3 with two Kh-32 missiles. It cannot carry more (analyzing all launches since 2022), and that’s very good because the warhead of 950 kg with no accuracy would have made the situation very difficult.
And accuracy means hitting a large mass of metal, which is an aircraft carrier in the endless ocean. A 300-meter circle of impact, which Soviet geniuses determined by the length of an American aircraft carrier.
P.P.S. To date, we have shot down 3 Kh-22/32 missiles. THREE missiles out of 412 launched! Out of FOUR HUNDRED TWELVE! And today, 9 out of 12 missiles!
Well, aren’t they gods?! 🙂
