The “Shahed” and rocket factories in Iran are in tatters. For the “Shahediki” — a separate “peace deal,” Donald Fredovich. You spout nonsense about Ukraine regularly, but I forgave you one for the strike on the “Shahed” factory.
The entire “Caspian Express” from Bandar Anzali to Astrakhan, through which the Russians pulled the lion’s share of gray Western electronics for their missiles and drones, is being shut down.
If the Americans cut off the southern ports (including Bandar Abbas), and logistical hubs, railway junctions, and warehouses explode from JDAMs — the transit of chips simply stops.
Everything on the surface will become such ruins. This will break chains and bring down suppliers. It will destroy logistics like ripples in the water.
Everything hidden deep below will have its entrances, ventilation, water supply, sewage, railway, upper warehouses, and ramps knocked out.
They won’t be able to make missiles for long; it’ll take years. Because there aren’t that many locations. Parchin and Khojir (Tehran area) are the heart of their missile program, massive underground tunnels where they mix solid fuel and test engines.
Shahrud is the IRGC aerospace forces base, specifically focused on solid-fuel ballistic missiles.
Isfahan and Shiraz are major industrial centers for assembly, electronics, and component production.
Kermanshah and Lorestan are basing zones and underground “missile cities.” Maybe they’ll come up with 40 complexes. JDAMs will surely be enough for them.
Perhaps they will take down a dozen planes through the optical channel, but I highly doubt it.
American “Growlers” fly missions with four HARMs. Multirole aircraft go with one air-to-air missile, the rest loaded with JDAMs without wings. They work as comfortably as possible. No one expects resistance. The air is completely Western.
Two expeditionary detachments are already on their way, of course, various air controllers and special forces can also be rapidly deployed by air. The US has 20-50 HIMARS and around two dozen M270s in the region. In hour “H,” they can launch a couple of hundred ATACMS, just like they smacked Saddam in the second campaign.
Regarding the intentional sabotage on the aircraft carrier, I reject that nonsense outright. No one, being on thousands of tons of fuel and ammunition, would commit sabotage. Only a complete idiot would, and they don’t keep idiots on aircraft carriers. It short-circuited, there was a fire, and they left for repairs.
The orange sun of democracy will later say it was a “great deal,” like, Iran would have understood they’re in big trouble, but right now they haven’t yet. That’s why we didn’t deploy the ground troops. Meanwhile, we’re bombing and killed the entire leadership, and even the police chief, twice. And our marines will come anyway.
Yes, fuel has become more expensive, but the US extracts and produces it themselves. Has Russia been able to overcome the export ban? No. And how is China feeling?
This is why the orange grandpa is sticking to the plan. And the $800 million damage to bases where the attacks did land — Raytheon and Boeing are already overjoyed, mastering their 13th salary and working in three shifts. And Gulf countries will no longer buy “Pantsirs,” because their interception is as leaky as over Rostov.
The main task of regional radars and domes has been completed — they ensured an 80% interception. Beyond that, Iran will spit out 20-30 missiles per day, uncover MLRS, provide air and hot nutrition to the buried underground factories, and hope for a miracle while supplies last.
How many are left? About 1500-1800. Pulling 20 a day can last 90 days. Everything revolves around this number. Approximately this was the US stockpile for war with the Soviets — 90-120 days. 5.5 million 155-mm shells, for example. I remember we asked them for such a number. I think they were really amazed.
Let’s see. Historically, the price in current dollars has been higher and held long in crises. Tankers are moving; there’s no blockade on either side. Americans could have stopped Iranian tankers at sea, but they haven’t.
Every crisis leads to its breakthrough: COVID led to electric motors, the great crisis of the 70s — to efficient engines. And this one, I think, will give a boost to small reactors and nuclear power. Time to take, imho, uranium ETF shares (like URNM) for small reactors.
The situation marker — will they return the coast or the Big and Little Tunb islands to the UAE. The indicator here — the 82nd US Airborne Division. If they deploy it, — it means they’ll move to the coast and large islands. If not, — it will be naval guerrilla warfare and HIMARS blows to the face.
Or it’s all just a threat, and they’ll physically continue to eliminate the Basij and police, and then with the hands of relatives of those 40 thousand executed protesters — Syria.
Or all the tasks are completed.
Intrigue.
