Timothy Snyder / Translation by iPress
Timothy Snyder warns: the war against Iran might not be an end in itself, but a tool – a way to provoke a terrorist attack on American soil, which would give Trump a reason to cancel or “federalize” the autumn elections. He claims that the United States has deliberately dismantled its own protection against terrorism, replacing competent professionals with loyal personnel, and real threats with fantasies about immigrants. Sources of terrorism could be Iranians, American right-wing radicals, or even Russia, which is well acquainted with this technology.
One of the goals of the war against Iran could very well be to provoke a terrorist attack on United States territory. This would give Donald Trump a reason to try to cancel or “federalize” the upcoming Congressional elections.
Self-terrorism might not have been the initial goal, but over time, as failures and atrocities grow, its appeal will only increase. Trump might think he has something to gain: the war itself raises the likelihood of terrorism, there are plausible vectors for terror, and the United States has weakened its own defense.
Trump has already hinted at such a move. We know he is obsessed with the autumn elections, where his party will almost certainly face a crushing defeat, and he fears the consequent loss of power. This is evident from his own statements and actions. In a social media post shortly after the war began, he (incorrectly) claimed that Iran had tried to harm his case in the last elections.
We have no other explanation for this war, at least from the American side. Trump is inconsistent, and his administration is unstable. Much of what was said about Iran is not true. The propaganda is contradictory. It seems that the war itself is not the main goal, but it was important just to start it somehow.
War, as is known, is a continuation of politics by other means. But what is this policy? The President and particularly the Secretary of Defense portray the United States as a kind of center for war crimes, a place where rules do not apply. War crimes do not help win wars. Instead, they provoke new war crimes and other reprisals.
The Tehran regime is, so to speak, a convenient partner in mutual terror-provocation. Iran is governed by ruthless people who have the experience and capacity to carry out terrorist attacks beyond their borders. A terrorist attack on US soil could be a response from Iran or one of its proxies. Trump seems to have anticipated this and appears not too concerned about human losses: “As I said, some people will die.” And if this happens, he will get his reason.
The actions of Americans and Israelis in Iran could provoke such fury that it might lead to spontaneous terror—from people associated with Iran and those unrelated to it. We bombed a school and killed 175 children. We kill rescuers. Bombing Iran’s civilian energy infrastructure and setting Tehran ablaze is not just a war crime, it’s an experience endured by millions of people. After the (apparently Israeli) night strikes on oil depots, people are warned that the air is dangerous to breathe and black rain falls from the blackened sky. Since Iran is largely cut off from the internet, we see little of this.
Worse still, we stand on the brink of a water war, which could threaten the lives of tens of millions. The region is facing a shortage of fresh water and relies on desalination of seawater. Even before the war, Iran was experiencing a catastrophic drought. Now, the country’s government claims that one of its desalination plants became a target of an attack. Bahrain also claims that Iran attacked one of its desalination facilities. The truth will emerge over time. If this war escalates into a water war, many will have to share the responsibility. But those who endure the deprivation of water will not be wrong in believing that the root cause was the American war.
Another possibility is a terrorist act carried out by Americans on U.S. soil, which could be presented as an Iranian attack—or not. Most terrorist acts in the U.S. are domestically originated and right-wing, and this war has already caused significant divisions among American fascists. Historically, fascists’ struggle for power has been accompanied by internal violence.
Russia is another potential source of a terrorist attack within the United States. It’s not hard to see why Moscow might consider such a possibility. Under the current circumstances, the blame could easily be shifted to someone else. Given that Putin consolidated his authoritarian power amid wars against Muslims and terrorist attacks within his own country, it’s not hard to imagine such a scenario for Trump. It’s also not hard to imagine him giving Trump such a gift. Russia has certain capabilities for this.
During the first year of Trump’s second administration, protection against all these vectors of terrorism was completely dismantled. The problem has three levels: policy changes, incompetent leadership, the absence of experienced personnel, and myths about immigrants overshadowing the real issue of terrorism.
Among the political changes of the Trump era, Russia is the most interesting case. The Trump administration consistently demonstrates a pro-Kremlin stance — to the point of tolerating Russia’s support of Iran in this war and ensuring Russia profits from oil sales. Right now, the Trump administration is asking Ukraine for help with drone defense in the Persian Gulf region, while denying the significance of Russia’s war against Ukraine, which actually forced Ukrainians to develop this capability. Under Trump, American monitoring of Russian sabotage activities has been curtailed.
Domestic terrorists also receive absolution if they are right-wing. The Department of Homeland Security has lowered the priority of combating domestic terrorism and no longer maintains the corresponding database. An incompetent but far-right recent college graduate heads the department’s program designed to prevent domestic terrorism. Numerous such examples can be cited.
Tulsi Gabbard, who heads the agency coordinating intelligence, has no qualifications for this position. She was last seen participating in a federal ballot seizure in Georgia: this has nothing to do with her official duties and directly points to an intention to “federalize” future elections.
That’s not all. Kash Patel, the FBI director, also lacks the necessary qualifications. He treats his job as a platform for his own fame. Currently, the Department of Homeland Security has no leader at all. The previous leader was dismissed due to a scandal of titanic self-admiration. The probable successor, Markwayne Mullin, has no relevant experience. His only qualification is unwavering loyalty to Trump and willingness to promote his narrative in the media. He actively participates in all these myths.
The issue lies in the fabrication. Calling American protesters terrorists after they were killed only worsens the situation. It’s a crime, masked by shamelessness, that breeds incompetence. Everything must align with Trump’s worldview. We cannot pursue right-wing terrorists because they are considered Trump’s allies, whom we must forgive and pardon. We can’t take the Russian threat seriously because Trump views Putin with sympathy and undoubtedly understands that Russia intervenes in his favor. The Trump administration cannot take real terrorism seriously because it must live in the grand fiction that the real threat to the U.S. is illegal immigrants. A year of using the word “terrorism” regarding this phantom threat created unreality, and unreality destroys capability.
No grand plan in the White House is needed for this, let alone a conspiracy. It doesn’t even require great initiative. Self-terrorism is rather about letting everything fall apart and then timely grasping at the falling fragments, and Trump does this well. The chain of events—dismantling counter-terrorism, war with Iran, terror attack, attempt to cancel elections—may not connect. The last element that has yet to fall into place is the public’s reaction. Our reaction.
The relevant authorities—local, state, and federal—must try to prevent a terrorist attack, the third link in this chain. Let those who deal with this succeed. But it is specifically we, all of us, who must prevent the attempt to cancel elections—the fourth and final link. The chain of self-terrorism will close only when we play the role assigned to us, when we choose to ignore patterns and fail to prepare psychologically.
We cannot afford the luxury of being surprised. Under such circumstances, we have no excuse for surprise. Allow me to quote Lesson 18 from the book “On Tyranny”:
“18. Remain calm when the unthinkable happens. Modern tyranny is about managing terror. When a terrorist act occurs, remember: authoritarian regimes use such events to consolidate power. A sudden catastrophe requiring the suspension of checks and balances, the dissolution of opposition parties, the suspension of freedom of speech, the right to a fair trial, etc., is the oldest trick in the book from Hitler’s playbook. Do not fall for it.”
It’s not just about Hitler in 1933. This is just one instance among many. History is replete with examples of leaders who use, provoke, or fabricate crises to stay in power. At the moment when a republic must give way to a new form of authoritarian regime, provocation and the use of terror are precisely what to expect. In a historical and political sense, this is not unexpected. If we don’t remember history now, we will help Trump’s regime create panic when a terrorist act occurs.
We must anticipate it with sadness and determination. We will be shocked, but we cannot be surprised if a terrorist attack is perpetrated on the USA. If we choose to be surprised, we create a moment that Trump will use to destroy what remains of our democracy. If the unthinkable happens, it will be because some in Trump’s circle thought about it, some created the conditions for it, and some looked away. The responsibility for the disaster will be on them. And the responsibility for democracy is on us.
