The negotiation process in Abu Dhabi has already included two rounds of closed meetings between representatives of the Russian and Ukrainian sides. Observers of various levels are questioning the effectiveness of these contacts. Time passes, the fourth year of the major war is ending, resources and human lives are draining away, yet no solid ground for achieving a ceasefire agreement is in sight.
The ceasefire must result from complex compromises on both sides, achieved through comprehensive concessions. However, Russia continues to maintain a maximalist position, showing no desire to be flexible or listen to any arguments, regardless of who articulates them. Putin wants to outmaneuver everyone: he needs to appeal to Trump, take steps towards Washington, and at the same time continue pushing the front line, as he is dependent on his hawks and defense lobbyists.
Recently, Defense Minister Belousov solemnly congratulated Russian occupiers on the capture of the village of Glushkovka near the administrative boundary of the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions. Although there is no confirmation of control over the village, which had 800 residents, Belousov described the “victory” as an example of defending the national interests of the state, a demonstration of endless love for Russia. Go plunder, destroy, kill – and you will be registered as a true patriot. If Moscow still adheres to such a flawed philosophy at the highest level, what breakthroughs can be expected in negotiations? The focus remains on a forceful scenario to achieve the goals of the “Special Military Operation.”
A telling moment here is the Kremlin’s almost complete lack of reaction to the assassination attempt on the deputy head of the GRU, General Alekseev, which was completely depoliticized. An official investigation is underway, and some movements are happening in the informational space, but the impact on the essence of the peace process is zero. The fact is that Putin himself does not trust the GRU, which was involved in Prigozhin’s coup through General Alekseev, so the death of the disgraced military intelligence officer was advantageous to him.
Despite the worsening economic crisis, Putin is still preparing to continue the war. He has likely ordered preparations for a spring offensive on the front and is concentrating significant forces in the south and east of Ukraine. However, it is unclear how much Ukrainian land Moscow wants to capture by 2026, given that by the end of 2025, less than 1% of Ukrainian territories were under its control. This is more than in 2024, but the price for each seized square kilometer is calculated at 83 human lives. It is almost impossible to imagine a worse military strategy.
The prospect of such a positional war without breakthroughs but with colossal losses and economic strain is a suicidal outlook.
The consequences of Russia’s coldomor tactics have been felt not only by the Ukrainian people but also by the Russian border region of Belgorod. Here, almost 500 high-rise buildings are without heating. Evacuation has started from the regional center. The regional authorities declare that the situation is critical, making mass relocation the only way to reduce the threat to people’s health.
If the voice of the Russian frontline area had been heard, sane leaders would have long ended the murderous conflict.
Instead, Putin’s generals are only devising new mobilization measures and continuing hostilities without any purposeful concrete plans. Kremlin propaganda wields vague and elusive formulas like the “NATO threat” or loyalty to the “spirit of Anchorage,” diverting people’s focus from understanding the prospects that lie ahead.
