Information on the current losses of the Russian Federation due to sanctions as of 14.02.2026.
1. Russia’s external public debt continues to grow and has already reached its highest level in the last 20 years.
– As of February 1, 2026, it amounted to $61.97 billion, according to data from the Russian Ministry of Finance. Similar figures were last recorded in the early 2000s, after which the debt remained below the $60 billion mark for a long time. Now Russia is effectively returning to levels it once tried to move away from.
– This refers only to state obligations to non-residents in foreign currency. If we consider the total external debt of the country, including banks and companies, it has already reached nearly $320 billion, according to the Bank of Russia, having increased by $30 billion in a year.
– Officially, this is explained by the revaluation due to the strengthening of the ruble and new borrowings, but in fact, it reflects an increase in debt burden amid sanctions and limited access to global financial markets.
– Despite the Kremlin’s loud claims of “financial stability” and “resilience to sanctions,” the reality shows a different trend: Russia is forced to increase external obligations even in difficult geopolitical conditions.
– This indicates the growing vulnerability of the economy and dependence on external factors that Moscow does not control.
2. The Russian authorities faced a new budget failure: due to the collapse of oil and gas revenues, the Kremlin is being offered to raise taxes by another 1.2 trillion rubles to cover the growing deficit.
– Analysts at Sberbank of Russia have proposed this initiative, forecasting that the “hole” in the treasury this year could be twice as large as planned.
– They propose to levy additional funds from producers of precious and non-ferrous metals in light of the sharp increase in global prices. Gold is reaching historical highs, silver, platinum, and palladium have risen sharply, and prices for copper and nickel have increased.
– Sberbank suggests raising the mineral extraction tax: they plan to “squeeze” about 1 trillion rubles from gold mining companies and approximately 200 billion from the mining and metallurgical giant Norilsk Nickel.
– Without new tax solutions, the 2026 budget deficit could reach 7.3 trillion rubles — about every sixth ruble of expenditures. Closed calculations for the government look even more alarming: it is about 8–10 trillion rubles deficit and the first decline in nominal revenues in many years, despite the already increased VAT and additional tax pressure on small businesses.
– The Kremlin is forced to seek money inside the country, increasingly shifting the financial burden onto businesses.
– This is another signal that the resource model of the Russian economy, dependent on raw material exports, is experiencing serious failures, while sanctions and foreign trade pressure continue to undermine the financial stability of Russia.
3. OPEC+ may resume production growth in April.
– Eight OPEC+ countries are considering the possibility of returning to gradual increases in oil production starting in April. The final decision is planned to be discussed on March 1. This includes Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman. In 2025, this group already raised quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day — about 3% of global consumption.
– Further monthly increases were suspended in January–March 2026 due to seasonal demand decline. Now, amid stable Brent prices near $68 per barrel, Gulf countries aim to regain market share before the summer consumption peak.
– For Saudi Arabia and the UAE, this is an opportunity to strengthen positions, while for Russia, the situation looks less advantageous. Moscow remains under sanctions pressure, sells oil at a discount, and faces logistical constraints.
– In case of increased global supply, the risk of price declines grows, directly impacting Russian budget revenues. Amid military expenses and reduced reserves, even moderate price drops could exacerbate the deficit and need for additional borrowing.
– Resumption of production growth within OPEC+ poses a dual challenge for Russia: competition for market shares and potential reduction in oil revenues, which remain a key source of funding for its war economy.
4. India withdrew from the lithium mining project in Mali, which was promoted jointly with “Rosatom”.
– Back in 2023, the Kremlin publicly presented this project as proof of Russia’s increasing influence in Africa. In 2024, a subsidiary of Rosatom received a license to develop the deposit.
– However, instability in Mali has only intensified, despite Moscow’s military support and the presence of its associated forces. India’s decision signaled a lack of confidence in Russia’s ability to ensure stability even in countries where it tries to establish a military and economic foothold.
– This is another blow to the Kremlin’s ambitions in Africa and evidence that the proclaimed “geopolitical breakthrough” is increasingly encountering failures on the ground.
– The Indian side is not ready to risk funds under conditions where there is a real threat of losing investments.
5. The US issued a general license to the Indian company Reliance for direct purchases and extraction of oil in Venezuela.
– The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) permission allows the acquisition, export, sale, and processing of Venezuelan oil without violating the sanctions regime.
– This decision was made amidst Washington’s announced easing of restrictions against Venezuela’s energy sector following the arrest of Nicolás Maduro and discussions of a $2 billion oil supply deal, as well as a $100 billion industry recovery plan.
– For Reliance, this opens up the possibility of directly replacing Russian raw materials with heavy Venezuelan oil, which is traditionally sold at a discount.
– The company had previously purchased about 2 million barrels of Venezuelan oil through trader Vitol, who had the appropriate license. In early January, Reliance applied for its own general license, which it has now received.
– This creates an additional alternative to Russian supplies for India and intensifies competition for markets that Moscow has relied on as key after losing part of its Western customers.
6. American Republican Senator Lindsey Graham has once again called for significantly increasing military support for Ukraine.
– During his speech at the Munich Security Conference, he stated that the US should provide Kyiv with long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles capable of traveling up to 2,500 kilometers so that Ukrainian forces could strike Russian military facilities and production infrastructure, particularly those that the Kremlin relies on for creating drones and other weaponry.
– He believes this could change the “military equation” in Ukraine’s favor. Graham pointed out that the current Western approaches are not stopping Russia’s massive attacks and emphasized the need to radically increase pressure on Moscow, not only militarily but also economically.
– He also supports a broad package sanctions initiative against Russia, targeting countries that continue to purchase Russian energy resources, which should further undermine the Kremlin’s financial ability to wage war.
– Such statements from an influential congressman indicate that the idea of supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles is in focus for part of the American political establishment.
– However, these proposals simultaneously prompt significant discussion about the risk of conflict escalation and potential consequences for US-Russia relations, as in Moscow, such ideas have already been called a serious escalation step.
