Information on the current losses of the Russian Federation due to sanctions as of 01/28/2026.
1. In Russia, trucking costs have sharply increased due to the mass closure of transport companies.
– In 2025, freight transportation rates within Russia increased by an average of 12%, but on a number of key routes, the price increase was significantly higher.
– Specifically, the cost of transportation between Moscow and St. Petersburg, as well as on the Voronezh — Volgograd route, rose by approximately 30%, and between Omsk and Novosibirsk — by 40%. The price increase is occurring amid a deep industry crisis.
– According to the freight exchange, the demand for transportation formally increased — the number of applications jumped by 37% over the year, but this demand is being served by a declining number of carriers.
– Throughout 2025, thousands of transport companies were forced to exit the market due to rapidly increasing costs, higher leasing and fuel prices, and declining profitability.
– It is estimated that by the end of the year, about 6,700 companies were in the process of liquidation or bankruptcy. The crisis also affected equipment: businesses massively returned trucks to leasing operators. Over nine months, more than 40,000 units of transport were returned.
– Some of this equipment began to be taken on lease again at the end of the year — at significantly higher rates, which in some cases reached 30%. Thus, the increase in transportation costs became a direct consequence of the degradation of the transport market, caused by economic pressure, sanctions, and the decline in business financial stability.
2. Germany may nationalize a Russian refinery due to sanction risks and energy dependence.
– The German government faces a difficult choice regarding the PCK Raffinerie oil refinery in Schwedt, which is formally owned by Russia’s “Rosneft” but is critically important for supplying Berlin with fuel. Up to 90% of gasoline, aviation fuel, and heating oil supplies for Germany’s capital and Brandenburg are at risk.
– The crisis was triggered by US sanctions against “Rosneft,” whose exemption expires on April 29. Without an extension, the refinery may lose access to financial operations and shut down. This has forced Berlin to reconsider the option of expropriating the Russian asset, previously deemed too risky due to possible retaliation from Moscow.
– The situation surrounding PCK has exposed Germany’s longstanding energy dependency on Russia, which persists nearly four years after the start of the full-scale war against Ukraine.
– The refinery has been integrated into the supply chain of Russian oil for decades and only recently began an urgent transition to alternative sources—more expensive and less convenient. Russian ownership has become a toxic factor: banks have already blocked transactions, investment projects are frozen, and potential buyers are shying away from deals due to sanctions and political risks.
– Essentially, the Russian asset has transformed into a strategic problem for Germany, threatening energy security and potentially requiring state rescue at taxpayers’ expense.
3. Russian oil increasingly accumulates at sea following a sharp reduction in purchases by Indian refineries.
– Since late August, the volume of crude oil stranded on tankers has increased by approximately 60 million barrels and stabilized at around 140 million barrels. Shipments to India last month dropped to about 1.2 million barrels per day—the lowest in more than three years—and declined further in January.
– This is happening amid sanction risks and the EU ban on importing oil products made from Russian oil taking effect. As a result, dozens of tankers are idling off the coasts of India and Oman, with some cargoes being redirected to China or temporary storage in Indonesia.
4. The West and Ukraine are targeting Russia’s shadow fleet, depriving it of oil revenues.
– Western countries, together with Ukraine, have sharply increased pressure on Russia’s so-called shadow fleet, used to bypass sanctions and export oil. In 2025 alone, more than 600 tankers were added to the sanctions list, twice as many as the previous year.
– Currently, about 40% of ships transporting Russian oil are under sanctions, forcing tankers to take longer routes, often idling at sea, and losing efficiency.
– Estimates suggest that following sanctions, the productivity of such ships drops by 30-70%, significantly increasing logistics costs. Ukrainian strikes on the shadow fleet’s tankers have added further pressure. Since the end of 2025, at least nine ships have been attacked, leading to an increase in insurance rates and higher transportation costs.
– As a result, the discount on Russian Urals oil has increased to $27 per barrel, the highest since spring 2023. If current trends persist, Russia’s oil and gas revenues may fall below $10 billion per month, further straining the Kremlin’s budget.
– Attempts to reflag the shadow fleet under the Russian flag only increase costs and complicate insurance, further depleting the state’s financial resources.
5. India openly announces further cuts in Russian oil purchases.
– India’s Oil Minister Hardeep Puri acknowledged that imports of Russian raw materials will continue to decline, although no formal government bans have been imposed on companies.
– According to him, the decline in supplies will continue in January, even though Russian oil is sold at Indian ports at the maximum discount during the sanction period.
– This indicates that the problem for Russia goes far beyond price — risks, logistics, and sanctions pressure are increasingly deterring even those buyers who recently took advantage of the situation. India systematically diversifies imports and now purchases oil from 41 countries. Companies are interested in increasing supplies from the US and Canada, jurisdictions that do not carry sanctions and reputational risks.
– In this context, Russia’s role as a “cheap savior” for the Indian market is rapidly devaluing. The average daily supply of Russian oil has already dropped to 1.3 million barrels compared to 1.8 million barrels last year.
6. A major scheme to bypass sanctions on car supplies to Russia uncovered in the EU.
– The European Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF) has launched a large-scale international investigation into the illegal export of 766 vehicles from EU countries. Cars were formally declared for delivery to Turkey but never arrived at the stated destinations.
– In fact, all of them were redirected to Russia. The investigation began after Polish authorities discovered suspicious shipments of used cars and passed the information to OLAF.
– The investigation uncovered an extensive scheme involving exporters from the EU and importers from third countries, including Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Moldova.
– Each car was tracked, allowing for full recovery of logistics and confirmation of their presence in Russia. Following the investigation, criminal cases have been opened in three EU member states.
7. China helped Russia establish production of Oreshnik missiles.
– China has become a key supplier of equipment for the Russian military-industrial complex, particularly for the production of hypersonic ballistic missiles “Oreshnik”.
– Beijing supplies Moscow with specialized CNC machines, without which Russia cannot increase the production of modern missiles and precision weaponry. The total value of the transferred equipment is estimated at over $10 billion.
– Chinese CNC machines, particularly carousel lathes, play a key role and were discovered by Ukrainian intelligence at the Votkinsk plant — a facility where “Oreshnik”, “Iskander-M”, and intercontinental “Topol-M” missiles are produced.
– Besides machines, China supplies Russia with microchips, electronic components, bearings, radio electronics, and measuring devices, which are used in the production of missiles, fighter jets, and drones. A significant portion of these goods are on the list of critical items banned for export to Russia by 39 countries, including the USA and the UK.
– Without access to Chinese technologies and transit schemes, Russia would not be able to maintain the current pace of the war. Moscow’s dependence on Beijing has sharply increased over the past two years since Russia’s own industrial base is outdated and unable to independently ensure the mass production of modern weapons.
8. The American technology company Ubiquiti is effectively continuing to supply equipment to Russia, which is used by the Russian military in the war against Ukraine, circumventing sanction restrictions.
– This is stated in an investigation by Hunterbrook Media. Deliveries are made through third countries, including Turkey, Armenia, and Kazakhstan, indicating established schemes for the re-export of sanctioned products.
– According to journalists, Ubiquiti wireless bridges are widely used by the Russian army to ensure communication between units and control drones.
– A Ukrainian communications officer reported that about 80% of such devices used by the Russian Armed Forces at the front are manufactured by Ubiquiti, and there are virtually no alternatives to this equipment.
– Hunterbrook also documented the willingness of Ubiquiti’s official partners to participate in supply schemes through intermediaries. The Armenian ITsupport company agreed to send sanctioned equipment to Russia. The American Multilink Solutions initially claimed the possibility of direct delivery to Russia, and after a formal refusal, actually offered an option for delivery through Turkey.
– The analysis of trade data shows that the total value of Ubiquiti product shipments to Russia has increased by at least 66% since the start of the full-scale war. This directly contradicts the declared sanction isolation of Russia’s military-industrial potential.
– Ubiquiti itself claims that it supposedly does not control the further resale of its products by distributors. However, the company has not announced a complete exit from the Russian market.
– Although the list of partners in Russia and Belarus has disappeared from the official website, archival versions of the resource indicate that many of the former Russian partners continue to operate and freely supply Ubiquiti equipment to Russia, particularly for military needs.
