Information on current losses of the Russian Federation due to sanctions as of 09.03.2026.
1. Oil and gas revenues of Russia’s budget have been falling for the second consecutive month.
– Oil and gas revenues of the federal budget of Russia in February 2026 amounted to 423.3 billion rubles — 44% less than the same period last year, according to data from the Ministry of Finance of Russia.
– A sharp reduction in revenues is recorded for the second consecutive month. As of the end of January-February, they amounted to 826 billion rubles, which is 47% less than a year ago, when the figure reached 1.56 trillion rubles.
– Revenues from mineral extraction tax in February amounted to 437.7 billion rubles — slightly less than in January (440.3 billion). Meanwhile, the average price of Russian Urals oil rose from approximately $41 to $45 per barrel.
– According to the banking sector’s estimates, the federal budget deficit in February could be around 1.5 trillion rubles, and for the first two months of the year — about 3.2 trillion rubles. This is approaching the annual budget deficit plan, which is 3.8 trillion rubles.
– Due to the war in the Middle East, global oil prices have risen: Brent quotes went up to over $90 per barrel, while Russian Urals approached $70.
– In March, oil and gas revenues may grow to 800-900 billion rubles if the average Urals price is $50-60 per barrel. At the same time, budget expenditures remain high: in the first two months of the year, they reached approximately 19% of the annual plan, while revenues accounted for about 15%.
2. Russia’s arms exports have sharply decreased over the past five years.
– In 2021–2025, it fell by 64%, according to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) on the state of the global arms market. Russia became the only one among the ten largest arms suppliers whose exports significantly decreased over this period.
– Its share in the global arms market shrank to 6.8% — three times less than in the previous five years when it was 21%. Almost three-quarters of Russian arms exports went to three countries: India — 48%, China — 13%, and Belarus — 13%.
– Meanwhile, the global ranking of arms exporters is led by the USA with a 42% share, followed by France (9.8%) and Russia. Germany overtook China during this period and took fourth place with a 5.7% share. Almost a quarter of German arms deliveries were to Ukraine in military aid.
3. US strikes on Iranian targets may weaken Russia’s military capabilities in the war against Ukraine, as Iran is one of the key arms suppliers to Moscow.
– President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky supported the US operation, calling Iran “Putin’s accomplice” and reminded of the use of Iranian drones for attacks on Ukrainian cities.
– According to Ukrainian authorities, Iran supplied Russia with Shahed drones and transferred technologies for their production. Russia organized the production of “Geran” drones based on them.
– Also, according to Kyiv’s estimates, Tehran transferred ballistic missiles, air defense systems, and ammunition to Russia. Strikes on Iranian military infrastructure may complicate the supply of weapons to Russia and affect its ability to replenish drone stocks.
– China supplies Russia with electronic components but avoids directly supplying lethal weapons, while Iran provided weapons to Moscow.
4. The US does not plan to lift sanctions on Russia.
– The US does not intend to abandon its sanctions policy towards Russia, despite some temporary relaxations due to energy market issues amid the war in the Middle East, announced US Energy Secretary Chris Wright.
– He commented on the decision to grant India a 30-day license to purchase Russian oil. “This is just a pragmatic short-term step. No changes in policy towards Russia,” said Wright.
– According to him, the US temporarily reviewed restrictions to alleviate concerns about an oil shortage and curb price increases. The minister made a similar statement on ABC News.
– He also expressed expectations that shipping in the Strait of Hormuz will resume soon, which should improve the situation in the oil market.
5. The G7 will discuss the possible release of oil from strategic reserves due to a price surge.
– Finance ministers of G7 countries will hold an emergency discussion on Monday about the possible release of oil from strategic reserves coordinated by the International Energy Agency.
– Ministers and IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol will hold a conference call to discuss the consequences of the war in the Middle East and the sharp increase in oil prices.
– On Monday, oil prices rose to their highest levels since 2022, exceeding $119 per barrel. At least three G7 countries, including the US, have already supported the idea of using strategic reserves.
– Some US officials are considering the option of a collective release of 300-400 million barrels of oil, which is approximately 25-30% of about 1.2 billion barrels in reserves.
6. Russia takes a wait-and-see approach amid the escalation of the war with Iran and anticipates possible long-term benefits.
– Moscow has not yet shown noticeable steps to support its Middle Eastern ally. Such caution may be related to the Russian leadership’s focus on the war against Ukraine and the expectation that the conflict around Iran may benefit Russia.
– In particular, the escalation in the Middle East may lead to an increase in oil prices, boosting Russia’s budget revenues, and diverting Western attention and resources from supporting Ukraine.
– Meanwhile, the events surrounding Iran have again sparked discussions about Russia’s ability to support its partners on the international stage. However, relations between Moscow and Tehran are mostly pragmatic.
7. Russian technology was found in the drone that attacked the British airbase in Cyprus.
– A Russian-made “Kometa-B” navigation system was found in the kamikaze drone that hit the RAF Akrotiri base in Cyprus on March 1.
– This is the first evidence of the use of Russian equipment in the war in the Middle East. The “Kometa-B” system was previously found in drones intercepted by Ukrainian air defense in December. The components found have been sent to a UK laboratory for further investigation.
– Preliminary assessments suggest the attack might have been carried out by Hezbollah militants from Lebanon. UK Defense Chief Admiral Tony Radakin stated he has no doubt that Russia has been providing intelligence data to Iran, calling the cooperation between the two countries a factor that makes their armed forces more dangerous.
8. Hungary and Slovakia seek alternatives to Russian oil following transit disruptions.
– The supply of non-Russian oil to Croatia could be an alternative for Hungary and Slovakia after the halt of Russian oil transport through Ukraine.
– Hungarian company Mol has ordered over 1 million tons of non-Russian crude oil for its refineries in Hungary and Slovakia. The cost of these supplies is about $650 million.
– One of the tankers with oil from Libya has already arrived at the terminal on the Croatian island of Krk, with several more vessels expected in the coming days.
– Alternative supplies are being made through the Adriatic pipeline Janaf, which connects the Croatian port with refineries in Hungary and Slovakia.
– The supply of Russian oil through Ukraine halted on January 27 after pipeline infrastructure was damaged due to a Russian strike. Since then, Hungary and Slovakia have started using reserves and searching for alternative supply routes.
– Hungary previously stated that the Russian Urals oil is its main source of supply, but the alternative supplies demonstrate the possibility of import diversification.
– Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković stated that the Janaf pipeline could provide oil supplies for Hungary and Slovakia.
