Those who claim that it is enough to give up Donetsk region, change the TCC into another form, hold elections tomorrow, and victory is in our pocket are populists who either thoughtlessly rush for power or work for the enemy. In one thing I agree with them – the government is ineffective. But the government “beyond the fence,” in the mad Putin, is much more evil.
To avoid getting confused in a heap of news about negotiations, “completed 100%” security guarantees, and the current state of the negotiation process, I’ll remind you of a few important things.
What happened in Abu Dhabi is not negotiations. Even in official press releases, it’s called “consultations.” Given that representatives of military intelligence from Russia are participating, it’s mainly about gathering and exchanging information.
So in the current format of meetings, which we see now, the war will not end.
For the war to end, territories are of secondary importance. Conventionally, Ukraine reaching the 1991 borders will not stop Russian missile attacks by itself. Just as the hypothetical expulsion of Ukrainian troops from Donetsk region will not stop attempts by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to regain these territories.
The only thing that has real significance for a ceasefire is security guarantees. That is, clear mechanisms that will make it impossible to resume the war after it has been stopped.
Such guarantees could be Ukraine’s membership in NATO or the deployment of military garrisons of allied countries. They could also be new fortified areas built along the demarcation line and the creation of a powerful missile program in Ukraine, which will ensure a reciprocal missile strike on Moscow or Yekaterinburg for every missile attack on Kyiv or Kharkiv. In other words, security guarantees should create high risks of re-invasion that Russia will no longer be able to undertake without the threat of a response.
That’s why the possible accession of Ukraine to the EU is not a security guarantee, as it does not pose any military risks for Russia. Instead, creating a united EU army based on the Armed Forces of Ukraine, funded, armed, and staffed jointly by all European countries, could be such a guarantee.
Zelensky’s words about the readiness of security guarantees “100%” seem more like part of a media campaign.
In the absence of official information about these “100%”, we can only refer to insiders from Western media who say that the guarantees will be “a reflection of Article 5 of the NATO Treaty.” But what exactly this means is unclear, since Article 5 does not contain direct obligations for the US to launch a retaliatory strike in response to an attack on another country. And even if such a clause appears in the agreement, it is hard to imagine how Putin would agree that the security conditions for Ukraine became stronger as a result of the war he started than they were before it.
The issue of ending the war still completely depends on one person.
The problem is that Putin still believes that in Ukraine, everyone is waiting for the Russian army and is ready to endure cold and shelling for this. He continues to publicly tell how in the occupied Ukrainian villages, Russians are met with flowers. He sincerely believes that his army is doing everything possible to avoid casualties among the civilian population. That is, he is not ashamed of this war because there is no one left in his environment who could say something that does not meet his expectations.
Just yesterday, at a meeting with the governor of the Leningrad region, Putin said that he is being asked to refrain from further strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. In response, the governor asked him to continue because “it is very important.” Moreover, at the end of December, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated that their goal is a “friendly Ukraine where the rights of Russian speakers are restored.” As he says, “we just need to try to bring this moment closer.”
So, Putin sees no moral, political, economic, or military reasons to end the war. Everyone around him supports the illusion that everything is going according to plan, Kupyansk is “liberated,” and “HIMARS” and “Patriots” have been destroyed several times more than were launched in the entire world history. Putin’s war is completely built on lies that Putin himself eventually believed.
All this means that the war will continue as long as Russia is able to fight. And that is why the actions of our military depend much more than any meetings.
Collage: TSN
