What are the pros and cons of handing over fortified areas of the Donetsk region to Russia?
An undeniable plus would be the immediate end of hostilities.
During this short truce, President Zelensky could be re-elected for a second term and continue to rule.
As for the cons, Russia will remain as it is, so as soon as Russia gets the Donetsk fortified area, it will immediately attack again from this bridgehead on Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Zaporizhzhia.
The situation will be complicated for us because once peace is declared, desertion in the Armed Forces of Ukraine will increase, as many people are tired of fighting, and the cessation of hostilities will be the moral trigger that allows them to desert.
Therefore, when the Russians attack again, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not be able to resist due to large staffing problems.
Another problem will be related to the financing of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. As soon as Putin and Trump proclaim peace, Ukraine will stop being funded because the war is over.
Ukraine will be left with a devastated economy, a hungry army, deep socio-economic problems, and a heavy moral trauma after the defeat in the war.
Therefore, the second Russian attack will be more devastating and destructive for Ukraine. Most likely, Kharkiv and Sumy will be lost. Possibly, Poltava and all of the Left Bank of the Dnipro.
Is the loss of the Left Bank worth a short break from the war?
In my opinion, this is a very unequal exchange. Control over the fortified areas of the Donetsk region gives Ukraine the opportunity to restrain Russian troops and NOT DEPEND on Putin and Trump.
Transferring the fortified areas of the Donetsk region to Putin is the key to the Left Bank of Ukraine. Therefore, this is a path to strategic defeat in the war for the existence of our state.
But in Ukraine, there are also many people who are ready to transfer territories in exchange for “peace.” President Zelensky is currently studying sociology carefully and making decisions on whether to transfer control of the Donetsk region to Putin, based on the popularity of such a decision among voters.
From a political cycle point of view, this could be a rational decision that allows the president to be re-elected as the president of peace. And the further catastrophic consequences of transferring the Donetsk fortified areas can be explained by Putin’s cunning, who again deceived everyone and occupied all of Left-Bank Ukraine.
Very soon, we will see the consequences of those “complex” decisions that negotiators are preparing us for.
For now, there are two options on the table: the state-centric one, where the state will be preserved, and the political one, where the ruling team’s power will be preserved. What do you think, which option will be chosen?
Photo: 56th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade Mariupol
