So, after the first days of negotiations in Abu Dhabi following the outlining of positions in Davos. The American press praises Budanov, but we’ll see, this might be a reciprocation for a change on the field and the joy that it’s not a conman and official, but someone who knows the material and understands the essence. Life will show what’s happening in the real world, beyond media praise. For the first time, they met without US moderation and without the press. This is an important point where the parties can avoid propaganda and focus on practical issues.
It only seems like these issues are only ours — they also have blackouts in Orel and Belgorod. And in Murmansk too, many areas have been without power for the fifth day — they have things to discuss with Budanov, about strange accidents in Krasnozavodsk, where they produce caps, and near the Northern Fleet base. Secondly, they replaced the rooster Medinsky with a professional intelligence officer. He won’t talk about “30 years we can fight like with Charlemagne,” but can have a substantive conversation, not only about an energy truce.
Kostyukov, as a career intelligence officer and admiral, has the right to report directly to Putin, and although he likely doesn’t like Patrushev from the office, they share the same value system as Patrushev. This is hardline statism, suspicion of the West, and the belief that the world is an arena for intelligence services’ struggle. In this sense, they speak the same “dialect.”
Especially substantively they can converse about the sea, where now the shadow fleet has started systemic “technical” problems. While circles are being cut in Abu Dhabi, Progress stalled off the coast of Algeria — a 100,000-ton giant, now drifting as an uncontrollable mass, creating an ecological risk for the entire region. And it’s not alone; in the same area near Gibraltar, Chariot Tide “settled.”
This is no coincidence, but a clear hint: if our lights go out, then your tubs stop bringing in currency. Not to mention the dozens of tankers detained by the US and Europe. So, I think, there are interests beyond ours.
Raising the level of negotiators to people who influence decision-making and have access to Putin and Patrushev — this is a definite marker of interest. They can tell their plebs they are capable of centuries-long warfare, but the USSR, much stronger, tired after 10 years in Afghanistan.
Plus, the Zaporizhzhia NPP — it has already been modernized by Westinghouse for western fuel, and for them, it’s a suitcase without a handle. They need to maintain it, and launching and servicing it under sanctions is problematic. It seems real negotiations, free from hysteria over Zaporizhzhia Oblast and the RF constitution, are beginning. We’ll see where they lead.
The stumbling block is Donbass. I think ours have an excellent understanding: a demilitarized zone with Russian police is occupation, and we’ve already seen a “people’s militia” of the abyss with tanks and reactors larger than those of many EU countries.
This, by the way, legitimizes negotiations for the military, — Budanov won’t be told about “peace-door-ball,” a demilitarized zone where supposedly there will be no troops. In general, our position has strengthened: we don’t bend on issues critical to us and can talk about things that can practically improve the situation. Real agreements are still far off, but it’s not the hysteria of “we can fight endlessly, and all SVO goals will be achieved,” but a step closer to reality.
And most importantly, now there won’t be empty talk from us in negotiations. With the now dethroned crown prince and ruler of all Ukraine. Who used to have three to write, five in mind, and with whom not everyone wanted to settle matters in the West. Even the Russian Orthodox Church called Budanov a satanist, not his predecessor. It means they fear and acknowledge him.
