Glory to Ukraine!
Glory to the defenders of Ukraine and all modern civilization!
- Trump will demand $200 billion from Congress for the war with Iran. It will be difficult for him to obtain it
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell: the American economy is in a challenging situation
- The Director of National Intelligence and the CIA Director avoided answering Congress members’ questions about whether the intelligence considered Iran an immediate and imminent threat to the US
- The “Annual Intelligence Threat Assessment” report has been published: several quotes on the assessment of threats from Russia and China
▶ The 47th president stated on Thursday, following the head of the Pentagon, that he intends to demand Congress allocate an additional $200 billion to the Pentagon for the war with Iran. However, getting such a bill passed by Congress will be very challenging for Trump. Even if the bill is reviewed under the procedure for revising the current budget, requiring a simple majority in the Senate, it is not certain that there won’t be ‘dissidents’ from the right among Republicans who will be categorically against these allocations. The same may happen in the House of Representatives, where Republicans may also have ‘dissidents’ from the right. One of such ultra-right members, Lauren Boebert, has already stated that she will vote against any allocations for the war with Iran under any circumstances.
The US budget is already at a record deficit. The US sovereign debt exceeds $39 trillion and continues to grow.
$200 billion can only be allocated by borrowing this money and, accordingly, increasing the budget deficit and sovereign debt by this amount.
▶ The Federal Reserve System of the USA left its key interest rate unchanged on Tuesday. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the economy is in a challenging situation where inflation is rising, driven by a sharp increase in energy prices (which makes it impossible for the Fed to lower the key interest rate) and there is virtually no economic growth. In the 4th quarter of 2025, the US GDP grew by only 0.7%, and for the entire year of 2025, GDP grew by 2.1% (compared to 2.8% in 2024). According to Powell, if you compare the number of jobs created and lost in the private sector in February, it results in a zero balance, which practically means no economic growth. If the current trend does not change, it may threaten a very unpleasant phenomenon called stagflation, where rising inflation is accompanied by a lack of economic growth – stagnation.
▶ The Senate and House Intelligence Committees held their traditional annual hearings on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, regarding US security threats and global security threats. At these hearings, questions from lawmakers were answered by Director of National Intelligence Gabbard, CIA Director Ratcliffe, FBI Director Patel, and leaders of other intelligence agencies. The hearings in both committees consisted of open and closed parts.
Gabbard and Ratcliffe avoided answering questions about whether Iran posed an immediate threat to US security, whether it planned to attack the US or American targets abroad, responding either that this would be discussed in the closed part of the hearings or that only the president has the right to determine if there is an immediate and imminent threat to US security. This, of course, is cunning or simply a lie. The duty of the 18 US intelligence agencies and the Director of National Intelligence overseeing their activities is precisely to collect and analyze information about national security threats, and the analysis should lead to conclusions that must be reported to the president. The president should not decide himself what constitutes an immediate threat to security. It is the intelligence that must inform him of such a threat if they see it. The president must decide what actions to take in such a case.
Gabbard avoided answering whether she still stands by the intelligence community’s assessment she presented at similar hearings a year ago, stating that Iran had not begun work on creating nuclear weapons because there was no decision by Iran’s supreme leader to start work on their creation.
▶ As per tradition before congressional hearings, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence published a document titled “Annual Threat Assessment of the Intelligence Community.” The open part of the document is 34 pages long.
Here are some excerpts from the document assessing external threats in relation to the world situation. I present quotes from the report without commentary.
China.
✓ “President Xi and his government aim to achieve the ‘great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation’ by 2049. China will seek to increase its power and influence to shape the environment in its region and influence global events; create conditions favorable to China’s interests; overcome perceived attempts at containment by the U.S.; ensure freedom of movement for itself in maritime areas; seek to reduce U.S. military presence and operations on its peripheral borders; and counter challenges to its reputation, legitimacy, and capabilities both domestically and globally. Additionally, China sees advantages in maintaining productive and stable economic relations with the U.S. and prioritizes this matter.”
✓ “Beijing will continue to strengthen its conventional military forces and strategic troops, increase competition in the space domain, and adhere to an economic development strategy focused on industry and high technology to compete with U.S. economic power; while expanding its presence in ‘Global South’ countries in areas such as advanced manufacturing and exports. It is highly likely that China will continue to seek to maintain U.S. dependence on sectors such as critical minerals, energy storage systems, pharmaceutical substances, and drones, while accelerating efforts to reduce its own dependence on the U.S. in sensitive or strategically important areas such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence. Furthermore, China has demonstrated the ability to damage U.S. infrastructure using its powerful cyber capabilities for espionage and to secure a strategic advantage in the event of a conflict.”
✓ “China’s interaction with Russia significantly strengthens Moscow’s ability to continue the war in Ukraine and withstand external pressure. China’s import of Russian oil and natural gas serves as a key revenue source for Moscow, helping it withstand international sanctions. China’s export of dual-use goods and technologies to Russia supports the maintenance of Russian defense production, simultaneously reducing Moscow’s interest in achieving a ceasefire in Ukraine.”
✓ “In 2026, Beijing is likely to continue creating conditions for unification with Taiwan, while avoiding armed conflict. China—despite its threats to use force for compulsory unification if necessary and to counter what it perceives as U.S. attempts to use Taiwan to contain China’s rise—still prefers, if possible, to achieve unification without military force. The People’s Liberation Army of China (PLA), for its part, continues to develop military plans and increase its potential to attempt unification using military force if appropriate orders are received.
The PLA is very likely demonstrating steady, though uneven, progress in developing those military capabilities that could be deployed in any attempt to capture Taiwan, and also to deter—and, if necessary, defeat—U.S. military intervention. Periodically, the scope, number, and pace of operations conducted by the PLA in the Taiwan area increase.”
✓ “China seeks to strengthen political and military control over the territories it claims in the South China Sea.”
✓ “In November 2025, tensions between China and Japan rose significantly following statements by Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi, who characterized a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan as a ‘situation threatening Japan’s survival.’ In response, China applies multi-domain coercive pressure, which is likely to intensify throughout 2026; it is aimed both at punishing Japan and at deterring other countries from making similar statements regarding their potential involvement in the Taiwan crisis.”
Russia and the Russo-Ukrainian War.
✓ “Russia views itself as a key geostrategic competitor to the United States and seeks to form a multipolar world order in which it would occupy and maintain a privileged position—equal to the status of the U.S. and other great powers, including China. Russia attempts to reshape global politics—often at the expense of U.S. interests—and seeks to restore its sphere of influence, as well as to prevent further NATO expansion into the post-Soviet space, especially in Ukraine. It is likely Russia will continue to selectively challenge the U.S. and its partners on a global level, deploying its full range of capabilities where it sees opportunities to gain an advantage; partly due to its long-standing conviction that the U.S. poses a serious threat to Russian interests. Furthermore, Russia will likely continue to cooperate with other powers—including U.S. adversaries—to jointly counter the United States in areas where their interests intersect.”
✓ “Russia retains the ability to selectively challenge U.S. interests worldwide using both military and non-military means. Its powerful, advanced conventional and nuclear armed forces represent a constant threat to our country, U.S. allies, and partners, as well as American troops abroad. The most dangerous threat from Russia to the U.S. is the escalation of conflict within an ongoing war, such as in Ukraine, or in the event of a new conflict leading to direct military engagement, including nuclear exchanges. Russia is also developing partnerships with China, Iran, and North Korea to promote its own interests and utilizes a range of tools related to the ‘gray zone’ of geopolitical competition, which is below the threshold of direct armed conflict. At the same time, Russia’s pursuit of multipolarity could open opportunities for selective cooperation with the U.S. if Washington’s perception as a threat by Moscow weakens.”
✓ “Despite losses sustained during combat operations, the number of Russia’s ground forces has increased, and its air and naval forces have retained their integrity and are possibly even more combat-capable than before the full-scale invasion. Russia possesses advanced weapon systems, including anti-space warfare capabilities, hypersonic missiles, and underwater complexes designed to counter U.S. military superiority. Moreover, Russia is creating new platforms for nuclear weapon deployment, complementing its already formidable nuclear triad of land, air, and sea-based assets, complicating U.S. nuclear deterrence calculations.”
✓ “Russia is likely to remain resilient in the face of Western sanctions and export controls, albeit at the cost of a growing budget deficit and insufficient investment in the civilian economy, raising the risk of long-term economic stagnation and deepening dependency on China. Moscow relies on partnerships with other U.S. adversaries to circumvent sanctions. Additionally, it is attempting to bypass sanctions by developing alternative payment systems.”
✓ “Russia’s tools in the ‘gray zone’ include cyberattacks, disinformation and influence operations, manipulation of energy markets, military intimidation, and subversion. Russia often conceals and denies its role, complicating U.S. efforts to counter it.”
✓ “Russia’s war in Ukraine has revived concerns of ethnic conflicts and deepened political rifts in the Western Balkans between Russia and the West. Russia fuels instability in relations between Serbia (which it supports) and Kosovo over the latter’s statehood issue and supports the secession of the Serbian entity—the Republika Srpska—from Bosnia and Herzegovina. Furthermore, Russia uses NGOs it supports to organize campaigns aimed at obstructing NATO and EU activities, emphasizing the ‘victim status’ of the Serbian people, and strengthening ties with Russia, especially in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Serbia, where a significant number of ethnic Serbs reside.”
✓ “Over the past year, Russia has maintained its advantage in the war against Ukraine and sees little reason to cease hostilities while its troops continue to advance. Moscow almost certainly remains convinced that it will achieve victory on the battlefield in Ukraine and impose a settlement on its terms. However, U.S. efforts aimed at establishing peace could alter this dynamic and mitigate some regional consequences of the conflict. A lasting settlement of the war in Ukraine could pave the way for a thaw in U.S.-Russia relations, as well as improvements in bilateral ties in the geostrategic and trade-economic spheres.
The continuation of the war raises the risk of both unintended and deliberate escalation, potentially leading to a direct conflict between Russia and NATO forces. Russia’s ongoing readiness to resort to covert actions against the U.S. and European allies to undermine their support for Ukraine—as exemplified by the railway explosion in Poland in November 2025—serves as a stark confirmation of this threat.
Similarly, Russia’s use of nuclear threats and the deployment of medium-range dual-use ballistic missile systems in Ukraine raise the specter of the regional conflict escalating into an existential threat for our country.
The war will also continue to have side effects on other regions of the world—as evidenced, in particular, by the fact that North Korean troops are gaining valuable combat experience and military technologies from Russia in exchange for participating in hostilities against Ukraine.”
Once again, these were quotes from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence report.
There are 1038 days left until the end of the story called “Fear: Trump in the White House” © (the title of Bob Woodward’s book, published in 2018).
Thank you to everyone who read this. Take care of yourself and your loved ones. Take care of each other, help each other. Health to all.
Ultimately, what happens in the world depends on us. On whether we fight evil, do Good, remain mere observers, wait passively, and believe that someone somewhere will decide something for us, or fight evil and do everything possible to ensure that Good prevails.
We must not allow evil to prevail. The victory of evil would mean the end of the world we live in. We cannot allow this. Especially now.
Ukrainian Friends, I embrace and love you all. Please take care of each other, I ask you very much.
Ukraine is and will always be.
And evil will be defeated and punished. And this is certain.
