Glory to Ukraine!
Glory to the defenders of Ukraine and all modern civilization!
Today in the issue:
- War with Iran: what has been achieved in 14 days
- The majority of Americans, according to most surveys, do not approve of the war
- Senator Chris Murphy: “This is the most incompetent and incoherent war America has waged in the last 100 years”
▶ It is the fourteenth day of the war with Iran.
Last Friday, a week ago, the 47th president declared that the US had already won this war, demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” and insisted that he should be involved in appointing the next leader of Iran.
On Wednesday, speaking at a rally of his supporters in Kentucky, Trump again announced that victory in the war had already been achieved, but he had not yet decided when the war should end. A rather strange combination: victory is claimed, yet the war continues.
Over the past two weeks, Trump has not formulated the goals of the war. He and his ministers proposed different and sometimes contradictory or unrelated goals.
However, from Trump’s initial statements, one could infer that he meant the goal of the war was regime change in Iran.
Let’s see what is happening today.
– There has been no regime change in Iran. And it could not happen. Such entrenched ideological dictatorial regimes do not change as a result of bombings and missile attacks. They do not change due to the death of a leader. Such regimes fall either as a result of a popular revolution, where part of the security forces refuses to support the regime and sides with the revolutionaries; or as a result of external intervention and occupation of the country; or due to a military coup; or due to a split in the regime’s “elite” and its dismantling from above. Nothing of the sort is happening in Iran.
– In response to the war initiated by the US and Israel, Iran launched attacks on Israel, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, Cyprus, Turkey, Azerbaijan, using over 1100 ballistic missiles and more than 2220 drones. It can be hoped that Israeli and American intelligence understand how many missiles and drones Iran still has. Open sources estimate the number of ballistic missiles Iran had at the start of the war at a minimum of 3,000. If so, Iran has expended at most a third of its arsenal today. The same sources state that Iran’s stock of drones at the start of the war was several times larger than its missile stock.
The Lebanese Shiite terrorist organization “Hezbollah,” which acts as a state within a state in Lebanon, armed by Iran with numerous missiles, also joined the war, opening a second front against Israel by launching daily rocket attacks on Israeli cities. The Iranian-armed Yemeni Houthis remain “silent” for now, but they could resume missile attacks on Israel at any moment and simultaneously paralyze shipping in the Red Sea.
– Iran has completely paralyzed shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil supplies and all liquefied gas supplies from Qatar, the third-largest liquefied gas exporter in the world after the US and Australia, pass.
The 47th president, who declared victory over Iran a week ago, promised that the American fleet would escort all ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Nothing of the sort has happened. As of today, the US Navy is unable to conduct such an operation. After Iran attacked and set fire to several tankers, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz was halted. Iran even attempted to mine the strait, but this operation was intercepted by US forces, which sank 16 Iranian minelayer boats.
– Regardless, the world is facing the largest energy crisis in over 50 years. 20% of the volume of oil imported by all countries of the world is not reaching the market. Since the start of the war, oil has already risen by 40% and the price is currently at $95 per barrel.
The sharp rise in oil prices leads to a sharp increase in fuel prices worldwide. If fuel prices do not fall, it will lead to a serious economic downturn in all countries and to global inflation, as rising fuel prices cause a very rapid increase in prices for everything due to increased delivery costs of any goods.
The only one who is happily rubbing his hands due to the sharp jump in oil prices is the Kremlin dictator. Money, which he had been deprived of, is flowing into his tattered pocket. Moreover, it can be expected that China will significantly increase purchases of Russian oil. This is because China is the main buyer of Iranian oil—90% of Iran’s oil exports went to China. But that’s in the past. Since Iran also uses the Strait of Hormuz for its oil exports, and there is no shipping through it, China will replace Iranian supplies with Russian ones.
On Thursday, the 47th president decided to share the joy of his Kremlin idol and published the following tweet on his social network at 9:14 AM:
“The United States is undoubtedly the world’s largest oil producer; therefore, when oil prices rise, we make huge money. BUT a much greater interest and importance for me as President is to prevent the evil empire—Iran—from obtaining nuclear weapons and destroying the Middle East, and indeed the whole world. I will never allow this! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP”
Everything in this tweet is “wonderful.” Including that the “evil empire” is now Iran. But the main thing is that the US somehow “makes huge money.” Huge money is made by American oil companies and Trump’s friends—their owners. But not the US as a state. Because at Trump’s initiative, taxes on the income of these companies and their owners were significantly reduced last summer in “one big beautiful law” (or as the leader of the Democrats in the House of Representatives calls it—“one big ugly law”).
— Russian envoy Dmitriev once again flew to Florida, where he meets with Witkoff. It can be assumed without fear of error that Dmitriev is executing Putin’s assignment to achieve from the US, if not the cancellation, then significant easing of sanctions against Russia related to the Russian oil and gas industry, oil and gas exports.
– The US is experiencing a rapid stock market decline. Since the start of the war, the Dow Jones index—a weighted indicator of the stock values of the 30 largest American companies—has already fallen by 4.69%, and the S&P 500 index—a weighted indicator of the stock values of the 500 largest American companies—has fallen by 2.99%.
Just on Thursday, the Dow Jones fell by 1.56%, the S&P 500 fell by 1.52%, and the Nasdaq—a weighted indicator of the stock values of the largest American high-tech companies—fell by 1.78%. A daily drop of even 1% in these indices is considered a crash. Judge for yourself what is happening in the stock market.
At the same time, Americans’ pension savings are dwindling, as pension funds hold a significant portion of them in stocks.
The yield on US sovereign bonds is rising—it has increased to 4.25% for ten-year bonds and to 5.15% for thirty-year bonds, which places an additional burden on the American treasury and practically forces the government to borrow more money, as it would otherwise be impossible to service the existing debt liabilities and simultaneously provide for the government’s budget expenses.
According to the estimate of the Congressional Budget Office—an analytical organization that performs economic calculations and assessments for both houses of Congress—the first week of the war cost the American budget $11 billion.
▶ Starting a war can be done if the commander-in-chief gives the appropriate order. Ending a war is much more difficult. Especially when its goal hasn’t been achieved. The actual goal of the war was regime change in Iran. This change did not happen. And it could not happen. Iran will emerge from the war, whenever it ends, with significantly weakened military potential, but an unchanged and embittered regime will immediately begin rebuilding this potential. And most likely this dictatorial regime will be even more brutal towards its citizens.
How the rest of the world will emerge from the war depends on how long the war lasts. And the main beneficiary of a prolonged war will be Putin. Even Xi Jinping, although pleased that the US cannot achieve regime change in Iran, does not need high oil prices, as they would slow down the Chinese economy. Unless the Kremlin friend sells oil at a discount. But still more expensive than before the oil price surge.
▶ According to CNN, five out of seven authoritative polling services show that Americans oppose the war by a double-digit margin; among them is a CNN poll conducted last week, showing that 59% of Americans do not approve of the initial decision to strike Iran, while 41% approve of it.
Quinnipiac University study: 53% of Americans disapprove of the war, 40% approve.
Reuters-Ipsos poll: 43% of Americans disapprove of the war, 29% approve.
▶ Democrat Senator Chris Murphy from Connecticut, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said to journalists at the Capitol on Thursday:
“This is the most incompetent and incoherent war that America has fought in the past 100 years—and that says a lot. The current administration has no idea what they are doing. There is no viable plan for waging the war. They change their goals and objectives literally every day. I deeply sympathize with our soldiers and commanders: they are led by a senile old man who is losing his mind. Prices are rising, the strait is blocked. Iran still retains the ability to strike our allies in the region… The nuclear program has not gone anywhere. This has turned into a complete disaster, and the blame for this lies with one person—Donald Trump, who changes his opinion every day on what he believes the essence of this war should be.”
There are 1045 days left until the end of the story titled “Fear: Trump in the White House” © (the title of Bob Woodward’s book, published in 2018).
Thank you to everyone who read this. Take care of yourselves and your loved ones. Take care of each other, help each other. Health to all.
Ultimately, what happens in the world depends on us. Whether we fight evil, do Good, remain mere spectators, wait passively, and believe that someone somewhere will decide something for us, or we fight evil and do everything possible to ensure Good prevails.
We must not allow evil to prevail. The victory of evil would mean the end of the world we live in. We cannot allow this. Especially now.
Ukrainian Friends, I embrace and love you all. Please take care of each other, I humbly ask you.
Ukraine is and will always be.
And evil will be defeated and punished. Inevitably.
