A brief analysis of events on the Hulyaipol direction.
The enemy’s 5th Commando Brigade stubbornly tries to advance west of Hulyaipole, while on its northern flank (sector of the 36th Commando Brigade), events are unfolding that clearly do not favor this.
Advanced counterattacking infantry groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are already 6.7 km from the Hulyaipole – Velyka Novosilka road.
At the same time, advanced units of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division, the 57th and 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the Russian 5th Commando Brigade are stubbornly trying to advance towards Verkhnya Tersa and Hulyaipilske. Moreover, it seems that units of the 38th Motorized Rifle Brigade from the 35th Commando Brigade have also moved into the 5th Commando Brigade’s sector.
The enemy’s command is actively using the Pology – Dorozhnyanka – Hulyaipole and Khliborobne – Marfopil – Hulyaipole roads for MTS supply and maneuvering forces and means on the adjacent flank of groups “Vostok” and “Dnipro”.
I think soon the enemy’s 76th Air Assault Division will try to sharply increase its activation along the Mala Tokmachka – Myrne line.
As I understand it, the Russian command has chosen a “bird in the hand rather than two in the bush” approach. It will attempt to envelop the Orikhiv District’s defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine “in a small circle” by breaking into the “triangle” of Omelnyk – Yehorivka – Chervona Krynytsya instead of a deep operational breakthrough to the Verkhnya Tersyanka river.
In principle, this is a quite logical decision, especially considering the fact that advancing further on a wide front in the operational zone of group “Vostok”, the Russian command, apparently WITHOUT REGROUPING ADDITIONAL forces and means into the sectors of its 36th and 5th Commando Brigades, is hardly capable. They have to concentrate the forces they have on the most “promising” sectors and directions.
The problem is that operationally, this decision is very poorly aligned with events in the sector of the 58th Commando Brigade (group “Dnipro”), which, with the support of the 7th Air Assault Division, is trying to break through to the Ukrainian defense line along the Konka river (in the area from Malokaterynivka to Komyshuvakha). There, the Russian advance has also stalled.
This will lead to the fact that if the Russians do reach the areas they have marked (which at the moment looks quite hypothetical), it will not be coordinated and in disarray.
The non-simultaneous advance of Russian groups “Dnipro” and “Vostok” to the flanks of the Orikhiv defense area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine may result in the Ukrainian command being able to counterattack them in turn, thereby conserving their own forces and means. The fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already managed to organize SIMULTANEOUSLY quite effective tactical counterattacks on the flanks of both advancing Russian groups shows that such capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are fully present in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
Photo: 54th Separate Artillery Brigade
