Today, the Hulyaipole and Zaporizhia directions.
1. The enemy (Russian forces) is attempting to continue an offensive with part of its groupings of forces (GF) “Vostok” and “Dnepr” in the Hulyaipole and Zaporizhia directions with the obvious operational aim of flanking the Orikhiv defensive area of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
At the same time, the main efforts of the Russian command are concentrated in the offensive areas of the 5th Combined Arms Army (CAA) GF “Vostok” and the 58th CAA GF “Dnepr”. Additionally, the 35th and 36th CAA GF “Vostok” are actively participating in the offensive, along with units and formations of the Russian airborne forces (abf). All of them can be conditionally divided into two operational-tactical groups (OTGs) — “Eastern” (advancing on a broad front conditionally from the Zaporizhia–Donetsk road area to the Hulyaipole area, GF “Vostok”) and “Western” (advancing along the Dnipro from Kamianske northward towards Zaporizhia itself, GF “Dnepr”). They include the following forces and means:
“Eastern” OTG:
– 127th Motor Rifle Division (mrd) – 114th, 143rd, and 394th Motor Rifle Regiments (mrr) and 218th Tank Regiment (tr) – 5th CAA,
– 57th and 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades (smrb) 5th CAA,
– 37th smrb – 36th CAA,
– 5th Separate Tank Brigade (stb) – 36th CAA,
– 38th smrb (part of forces) – 35th CAA,
– 69th Separate Coverage Brigade (scb) – 35th CAA,
– 76th Air Assault Division (aad), part of forces – abf.
“Western” OTG:
– 19th Motor Rifle Division (part of forces) – 392nd, 503rd, and 429th mrr – 58th CAA,
– 42nd Motor Rifle Division (part of forces) – 291st and 70th mrr – 58th CAA,
– 7th aad (part of forces) – 108th and 247th Air Assault Regiments (aar) – abf,
– 45th Separate Special Purpose Brigade (sspbr) airborne forces, part of forces,
– 4th Military Base (MB, South Ossetia) – 58th CAA,
– 100th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade (srb) – 58th CAA.
2. Currently, Russian forces in the Zaporizhia direction are evidently conducting an operational offensive operation on the contiguous flanks of their two groupings of forces, “Dnepr” and “Vostok”, with the goal of flanking the Orikhiv grouping of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the flanks (western and eastern), in order to create conditions that would eventually allow them to defeat this grouping of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and advance from the southeast to the immediate approaches of Zaporizhia.
To this end, GF “Dnepr”, with the 58th CAA reinforced by units of the 7th aad, is attempting to advance from the line Kamianske–Stepove to the Konka River and thus reach the main line of defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Malokaterynivka–Komyshuvakha section.
In turn, UV “Vostok” with the 5th Guards Tank Army, reinforced by various units and resources from the 35th Guards Army and the 76th Airborne Division, is making similar attempts to advance over a wide front to the Novomykolaivka — Tersyanka line, as well as reaching the area of Novosoloshyne — Verkhnya Tersa — Hulyaypilske — Omelnyk with their forward units and subdivisions.
Over the past few weeks, the forward units and subdivisions of the enemy’s 5th Army, advancing in these directions, managed to occupy most of the town of Hulyaypole, reaching the Hulyaypole-Pokrovske road at least in the section from Dobropillya to Varvarivka. Some of their assault groups advanced further:
– west of Hulyaypole towards Hulyaypole – Zaliznychne, and also Dobropillya – Ternuvate, reaching the latter;
– they also advanced to Staroukrainka and Tsvitkove.
Additionally, with the help of the 36th Guards Army, the right-wing units and subdivisions of the advancing 5th Guards Tank Army continued intensive offensive/assault operations towards Yehorivka — Danylivka and Vyshneve — Novooleksandrivka, attempting to break through from the south to Pokrovske.
In the 58th Guards Army sector, the enemy managed to advance in the direction of Stepove — Pavlivka (up to 1.5 km), attempting to secure positions in Lukyanivske and Prymorske to further push towards Hryhorivka and Komyshuvakha. For this purpose, enemy assault groups from their forward units and subdivisions carried out active offensive/assault operations north of Stepnohirsk towards Stepnohirsk – Veselyanka and in the Prymorske area towards Prymorske – Richne.
However, in this context, Russian forces achieved some success (and only in a tactical sense) on certain segments of the 5th Guards Tank Army’s western and northwestern sectors from Hulyaypole. Their separate and fairly small assault groups broke through to Ternuvate, Zaliznychne, and Staroukrainka.
But on the right flank of the 5th Guards Tank Army sector, the enemy was unsuccessful (fighting for Danylivka and along the Oleksiivka — Orestopil line continued without significant advancement of their subdivisions).
Meanwhile, a few days ago, it seems the Ukrainian Armed Forces started a series of counterattacks on several areas of the 5th Guards Tank Army’s advance to stop further progression of its forward units and subdivisions and also launched counterattacks in the 58th Guards Army sector of the enemy. Specifically:
– In the Ternuvate area, it’s likely that the forward subdivisions of Russian forces were forced to retreat south to the Haychur river due to these Ukrainian Armed Forces counterattacks, leaving Ternuvate, where they had broken through a few days earlier.
– In the Zaliznychne, Staroukrainka, and Tsvitkove areas, it’s likely that the Ukrainian Armed Forces also managed to “clear out” several small enemy assault groups.
– In the Lukyanivske area, northeast of Stepnohirsk, it’s likely that the enemy was forced to retreat southwest, leaving their forward positions in the village area, which slightly improved the position of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ forward units in the Stepnohirsk area.
3. However, the numerous reports of alleged “16 km breakthroughs” by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, particularly on the right flank of the enemy’s 5th Guards Tank Army sector and in the 36th Guards Army’s sector, I cannot yet confirm or deny due to a lack of reliable, verified information on this matter.
It is evident that the counterattacking actions of the forward units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the offensive zone of Russia’s 5th Army have quite limited scope and scale and are likely aimed only at eliminating the small infiltrated enemy infantry groups within their combat formations, rather than conducting deep (even in a tactical sense) offensive operations. Therefore, it seems clear to me that it is still too early to draw any definitive conclusions about the “future prospects” of these Ukrainian actions.
On the contrary, the overall operational situation in these directions does not appear particularly optimistic to me. Over the last week and a half, the offensive of Russian forces in the area of Huliaipole and to its north has significantly slowed, as it has in the zone of their 58th Army. However, over the preceding two months of offensive battles, Russian forces in these directions and sectors have achieved quite substantial successes, almost reaching the conditions necessary for them to conduct an operational offensive operation in this direction by the summer of this year, with fairly obvious goals — the defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ Orikhiv group and a breakthrough to the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia from the southeast.
Therefore, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will evidently need to make significant efforts to ensure that the hypothetical Orikhiv-Zaporizhzhia offensive operation of Russian forces, along with a similar Sloviansk-Kramatorsk operation, during their summer campaign of 2026, has minimal chances of achieving final success.
Photo: 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade named after Prince Kostiantyn Ostrozkyi
