Tom Cooper, Sarcastosaurus / Translation by iPress
Tom Cooper continues to analyze the current escalation of the war between the US and Israel on one side, and Iran on the other. He emphasizes the obvious double standards of the West, especially in how it assesses civilian casualties depending on whose strikes caused them. Cooper is convinced that the US-Israeli strategy, including a possible naval operation against the island of Khark, is an adventure without a realistic exit plan, which will only deepen the global economic crisis and is incapable of forcing the Iranian regime to capitulate or even come to the negotiating table. Separately, Cooper notes that the Israeli air defense is gradually being depleted under the pressure of successive Iranian strikes. The author’s overall conclusion: the initiators of this aggression are in a deadlock, and the only sensible way out for them is to acknowledge defeat and retreat before the situation gets completely out of control.
Today I will touch on a few issues that have been frequently asked in recent days – we will discuss a few details that, in one way or another, have been bothering you.
For example, last night, in response to an alleged “Israeli airstrike on a nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz” (although it was generally believed to be a joint US and Israeli strike), the IRGC Air Force conducted its 71st wave of the operation “True Promise-4”. Apart from Eilat, among others, “Dimona” in southern Israel was hit. In reality, it was a town I know as Arad (because that is how it is named, for example, in Google Earth), not the Israeli nuclear research center in Dimona, located over 20 km away.
Thus, with complete inaction from the Israeli air defense, at least one Iranian missile hit directly in the center of Arad, not only destroying several buildings but possibly also hitting one of the underground shelters. The number of casualties quickly rose from 20-30 to over 100 wounded, several dead, and a few more people still under the rubble.
The media is full of “shock and surprise,” and, of course, now everyone blames Iran for a “deliberate strike on civilians.”
Why Arad?
This place began construction in 1962, approximately 45 km east of Be’er Sheva, and is one of at least three settlements where people working at the nuclear research center in Dimona reside.
Call me biased, anti-Semitic, etc., but the fact is that I not only “don’t consider it normal” when someone targets and kills civilians, I despise anyone who does. Regardless of the reasons and regardless of which civilians are involved. I believe every life matters. I don’t care about ethnic groups, religions, or anything like that.
That is why I will remind you that while Israelis target Iranian nuclear scientists and nuclear facilities (and they were the first to start doing this), they have also killed dozens of Iranian civilians. Especially in June of last year. Furthermore, as surveys like the one below show, the Israeli public simply does not care how much Iranian civilians suffer from their (and American) bombings.
No, I do not consider it grounds to say: “if the Israelis do this, then the Iranians have the right to do the same.” Not at all. I am merely reminding you of this fact:
- when Israel and the USA strike nuclear facilities in Iran and kill Iranian civilians, it is “normal”…?
- whereas when the IRGC Air Force strikes Israeli nuclear scientists and kills Israeli civilians, it is “not normal”…?
Sorry, but these are the same double standards as always. The same every time the supposedly “highly professional,” “precise,” and whatever US and Israeli forces, while the Iranians/IRGC are “hordes of bloodthirsty camel-riding, turban-wearing people randomly striking civilians.” Although it has now become clear not only that the Israel Defense Forces do not care about “collateral damage,” but also that the Iranians/IRGC actually strike very accurately (especially considering their missiles’ and drones’ low accuracy) and systematically, and what they do is so logical that no one even tried to intercept the missile strike on Arad.
It was not intercepted because the Israeli air defense suffered damage and because previous Iranian missile strikes exhausted it to the extent that the Israelis simply ran out of interceptors. … Which, of course, the Israel Defense Forces will never admit. Without visual evidence, I can only speculate that such Iranian attacks occurred, given the number of Israeli reports about “Iranian strikes on Beit Shemesh” – that is, on the Sdot Micha airbase, due to the gradual decline in effectiveness of the Israeli air defense. But this is something I can already speculate on with a high degree of certainty, as the Iranians/IRGC have also disabled at least 10 large American radars related to air defense in other parts of the Middle East.
P.S. To avoid delay, on Sunday morning the US Navy launched a TLAM strike on Natanz, and CENTCOM reported “damage” to the facility.
Of course, I can’t help but wonder: why was this necessary if this facility, according to IQ47, was “wiped off the face of the earth” last year…? But alright: if I set aside my questions, as far as I know, the US Navy has about 16 Arleigh Burke-class destroyers in the Mediterranean, Red Sea, and Arabian Sea. Nominally, each of them carries 32 Tomahawks. Add at least one modified Ohio-class SSGN, which carries 154 Tomahawks. Judging by photos that appeared in Turkish media three or four days ago, it is located in the eastern Mediterranean, off the coast of Cyprus.
Another interesting point: it is estimated that the US Navy has already spent about 350-400 Tomahawks. That’s about 10% of their stockpile of 3,200.
Before the Iranian strike on Arad, for two days Western media buzzed about the “Iranian attack on the US and British base Diego Garcia” in the central Indian Ocean, about “2,500 miles” from Iran.
I can’t help myself, but reading these reports mostly shows how much unknown there is in this story and the absence of any solid facts. For example, no one really knows for sure how this strike was carried out. Some suggest it was UAVs, but most seem to have bought into the story of Iranians launching “two Khorramshahr-4 ballistic missiles with a reduced warhead mass.” It goes on to say that one failed in flight and fell, and the other was shot down by an SM-3 Standard missile launched by a US Navy Arleigh Burke-class destroyer.
The Chief of Staff of the Israeli Defense Forces hastened to publish a video selfie with a stern warning: this means that Iranian missiles could reach Europe, and Israel is fighting to protect Europe, democracy, civilization, and the world…
No, I don’t know better. There are only three things I know for sure:
1. Diego Garcia is not a “British base”: it is an island of the Chagos Archipelago, officially British territory, where the British cleared out the local population to lease the island to the USA. So while this base is “nominally American-British,” in reality, the facilities are used by the US armed forces, and they have American designation. Initially, it was Camp “Justice.” In 2006 it was renamed to Camp “Thunder Cove” or Naval Support Facility “Diego Garcia”… The fact is that the US built a large airbase on Diego Garcia, capable of accommodating up to 20 B-1, B-2, and B-52 bombers, which was evident back in 2001 when the US (and allies) began their military intervention in Afghanistan.
2. Diego Garcia is located approximately 3780 km from the nearest point of the Iranian coast. 3780 km is about 2349 miles, or 2041 nautical miles.
3. The last thing I’m certain about, but can’t provide evidence for, at least not anymore. It’s my fault: it’s already 2026, and I didn’t save the link, so I can’t point you to the post (in Persian) on one of the IRGC sites from around 2004-2007, where one of their leading strategists explained the need to develop a missile capable of striking Diego Garcia. Yes, Diego Garcia specifically, not “Europe” or anything else, Diego Garcia. In plain text.
And despite not saving the link, I remembered it because… well… at the time, while in the “West” it was generally considered “another despicable Iranian propaganda,” my method of work was to first understand the background and context to know what such “interest groups” as the IRGC want. And for that, to understand them, I need to read and keep in mind what their ideologues and strategists teach (or “preach,” if you like). That’s why I wasn’t surprised when a few years later (still in the late 2000s) the IRGC Air Force proudly showcased its solid-fuel two-stage “medium” range ballistic missile Sejjil. And wasn’t surprised by the “Western” assessments that there might be a heavy 38–45-ton modification of the Sejjil-3, believed to have three stages and a range of about 4000 km (including a warhead weighing 700 kg).
4. Another thing I am certain about is that after the development of Sejjil, the IRGC Air Force used the same or a similar “baby bottle-shaped” warhead on a range of their other ballistic missiles.
Another “little thing” that almost no one is talking about is the Israeli frenzy in Lebanon. I think it’s worth talking about, at least out of respect for over 900 Lebanese civilians killed by Israeli bombs in the last two weeks. Because history teaches us that such traumas, for instance, when caused by Israeli mass killings of tens of thousands of civilians in southern Lebanon in the 1970s, tend to lead to the emergence of such groups as Murabitoun, and then, “after a few turns,” a few years later – Hezbollah.
And so, for example, on Friday, March 20, around 8:00 PM local time, the US ambassador to Lebanon asked his government to appeal to the Israelis to “spare the Christian villages” in southern Lebanon. Besides, this means that (at least) the US ambassador to Lebanon is well aware of the chaos and atrocities that the Israeli bombing brings to the local population…, but who should care about that, right? Yet three hours later, the Israeli Defense Forces issued one of their infamous “evacuation orders” for one of the Christian villages in southern Lebanon…
In such cases, the Israeli Defense Forces always claim that these civilians either “support Hezbollah” or “Hezbollah uses them as a human shield,” although there is no evidence that Hezbollah (or Hamas, by the way) ever acted like that, yet it is the Israeli Defense Forces that have a well-established doctrine of using “Arab” civilians as a human shield.
No need to “take my word” for it: this was first reported by Israel’s own human rights organizations. Twenty years ago, the use of human shields was so prevalent in the Israeli Defense Forces that the Israeli legal system tried to curtail it but failed in the face of massive resistance both within the military and from the Israeli public.
In other words, brace yourself for more reports of mass civilian casualties—in Lebanon and elsewhere.
The final question is, what will happen next in this “non-war” of the U.S. and Israel against Iran?
Aside from the sheer absurdity of IQ47—the same figure who just over a month ago threatened to invade one of the NATO allies—not ceasing to criticize NATO allies for not assisting him, I can’t help but wonder: why he now doesn’t employ his “Peace Council” to help extricate himself from the problem he created (thanks, of course, to the bribery and subversive actions by AIPAC/Israel)?
After all, he not only created this Peace Council “instead of the dysfunctional/incompetent/useless” U.N.; he also pulled $10 billion U.S. dollars from the American treasury for it (i.e., misuse of American taxpayer funds), though supposedly the purpose of this Peace Council was… to maintain peace? And now…?
Instead, judging by the hasty redeployment of two major U.S. Marine units (so-called “Amphibious Ready Groups,” ARG) towards the Persian Gulf (not only is the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit led by the USS Tripoli heading there, but the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit led by the USS Boxer is also on its way), it seems like IQ47’s administration’s new plan is to continue strikes on Iran while capturing either Khark Island or some other point on the Iranian coast to force the IRGC regime to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Or even to capitulate.
Call me what you will, but from a practical standpoint, it’s just another unattainable dream. Not a plan, but an idea that will never work.
Reasons:
1. Every additional day (primarily) of Israel’s dreaming of “weakening Iran” is another day of continued and deepening global economic crisis. Another day of colossal economic losses already due to the mere fact that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Not to mention the additional losses caused by military actions – for Iran, yes, but also for all its neighbors.
What do I mean?
Well, if anyone expects Qatar, the UAE, or Saudi Arabia to “recover as if nothing happened,” – good luck!
This very fact, ladies and gentlemen, simply plays into the hands of both the IRGC regime and the Israeli regime.
2. Alright… now, to reach Khark, the US Navy must enter the Strait of Hormuz and… wait: the US Navy has to enter the Strait of Hormuz, and that too on large, thick, slow amphibious ships filled with troops, fuel, and explosives?
Here’s where I cannot help but wonder: how does the US Navy plan to do this if the Strait of Hormuz, 750 km away from Khark, is already a restricted zone? How is the US Navy supposed to move all its large, thick, slow amphibious ships these 750 km from the Strait of Hormuz to Khark along a coast dotted with IRGC bases and hideouts?
3. But yes, Khark is Iran’s main oil export terminal. No disputes. 90% of Iranian crude oil exported abroad is loaded there.
However, it is not the only point for loading Iranian oil for export. As I already explained a few days ago, the “heart” of Iran’s oil export system is the Gorre pumping station, and from there the pipeline runs all the way to the port of Jask on the coast of the Gulf of Oman. Both of these facilities are located on the mainland of Iran.
This means: with or without Kharg, Iran can continue exporting. Unless the U.S. Marines first land in the Jask area (as described here), then go 200 km to Bandar Abbas, and then another 700 km to Kharg…
Alternatively, the IRGC regime might decide to stop its own production even earlier. Entirely on its own. So that IQ47 can see how much his “permission” for Iran to export oil for U.S. dollars is really worth. Just like the Qatar regime did.
I hope it doesn’t need to be emphasized that in such a case the global economic crisis will only worsen (while the IRGC regime remains in place).
4. …which reminds me: is there a “plan B” if the capture does not yield the expected results?
5. Now, if U.S. armed forces (not so much the U.S. Navy) decide to go all-in, attack and occupy Kharg or Abu Musa, or Greater or Lesser Tunb, or (the worst of all ideas) Qeshm, or Jask, or (if the U.S. finds enough troops for this) all of these together, it might not even lead to “large American losses” as some fear. Yes, the Iranians will defend themselves by all available means, but the sheer military power of the U.S. will outweigh them rather quickly.
However, holding any of these islands or any points on the mainland under military occupation by American troops is an entirely different matter.
Why? Well, how long should such an occupation last? Who expects that American troops, half of whom are driven mad by indoctrination about IQ47 being almost a Messiah, almost a reincarnation of Jesus Christ, at least the savior of Christianity and “America,” will treat the local MUSLIM population well? Even decently? And when and how are American troops supposed to leave afterward? Have you ever heard of something called “mission creep”?
If there are any doubts, look at what happened in Vietnam, and especially in Afghanistan and Iraq…
6. It’s still amusing to see all these articles, comments, etc., in mainstream and social media expecting the IRGC regime to “sit at the negotiating table.”
Yes, indeed, there are reports that IQ47 and his selected AIPAC administration are “preparing for negotiations after the war.” But who said the IRGC regime is doing the same?
Put yourself in their place (no, this is not “Iranian propaganda”) and ask yourself: what exactly should the IRGC regime negotiate?
They were attacked and are being killed by the two most ruthless and uncontrolled forces on this planet. All this “for nothing”: for attempting to build ordinary deterrence tools precisely against this type of aggression. For the very idea of resistance and for their right to equal treatment. They are already experiencing the total destruction of their country—because they are bombing not “only” the regime, its nuclear facilities, missile bases, and factories, but it is accompanied by blatant mass murder: at least on the part of two states that not only don’t care about “collateral damage” but deliberately target even the 2600-year history of Iran’s homeland. They are already now, even before a potential ground invasion, unable to count on any mercy.
The most effective tool of the QVEF regime, and the only tool they have left, is resistance: whatever form this resistance takes and whatever remains of it (“even if it’s one missile a month fired at Israel”), it is enough to deepen the crisis created by the aggressors to nearly unimaginable scales.
So what exactly should they negotiate about?
The USA and Israel started this aggression: their aggressive war clearly failed. They are the ones who need to swallow their pride, stop it, and retreat. It’s very simple.
Unsurprisingly, numerous representatives of the QVEF regime have repeatedly made it absolutely clear: they are not going to negotiate, no matter what it’s about.
Kill them, but be sure: their successors will tell you the same.
Bottom line: even a threefold capture of Kharg Island (or any other Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf) will not create any “automatism” that would even lead to a ceasefire. Not to mention what the “West” actually might want from Iran, such as capitulation, disarmament, and some peace agreement. This will not happen.
From the IQ47 perspective, the best solution would be to do the same as last June: declare it a “victory” and go home.
He has already proven to be so corrupt, so incompetent, and so poorly informed that he even started this venture practically and undoubtedly: in the interests of Israel. Now the question is whether he will have enough sense to end it.
In time, please.
