Politico writes about “talks” in the EU regarding “accelerated” yet “limited” membership for Ukraine in the EU, possibly by 2027.
For now, these are “talks” much like everything related to the “peace deal*”. But the approach itself raises several serious questions.
The “talks” are centered around 5 “steps”.
Step one – the most important for setting the agenda in Ukraine. “Ensure Ukraine’s readiness”. This is where Volodymyr Zelensky, his entourage, and their “servants” in the government and parliament currently face the most challenges.
Because their approach is – “they have no choice, they will accept us”. In contrast, the EU is a record holder in setting demands and seeing them through to completion.
The best approach with them is the one Petro Poroshenko used to obtain visa-free travel: agree on a comprehensive list of changes (the same “list of 141 reforms” – from deploying anti-corruption infrastructure to introducing biometric passports) and achieve results after implementing them.
The EU is following this path. Ukraine is presented with 10 points, covering everything Brussels has long demanded but which “Zelensky’s team” avoids – from rebooting the State Bureau of Investigation to strengthening anti-corruption procedures. Without this, as well as without abandoning pressure on the opposition, activists, and journalists, there will be no movement towards the EU.
Step two – very dangerous for Ukraine’s interests. This is euphemistically called “calibration”. Ukraine may be “initially” admitted to the EU without the full range of rights and obligations, but under a “process”.
Where again gaining rights (decisive vote, access to funds and markets) will depend on changes within the country.
This is something “Zelensky’s team” hopes to postpone “for later”, so as not to think about it now, and so that Ukrainians don’t think about it. To sell us on “We’re joining the EU!” while supposedly “details are unimportant”.
This is a flawed and dishonest approach. Because it threatens to discredit EU accession, arming Eurosceptics, saying, did we get what we aimed for?
From honest rules equal for all – to opportunities for producers and quality of life for citizens.
The real success of negotiators on the European front will be determined not by catchy slogans in broadcasts, but by answering questions about the substance of the course towards the EU and joining the Union.
The other three “steps”, according to “Politico”, concern Viktor Orban personally. He, as supposedly hoped in Brussels, will either lose power after the elections in the spring, or Trump might persuade him, or the EU might mature enough to change the voting procedure and move away from the principle of consensus, which the Union has so far tried to avoid.
However, all these constructs remain purely theoretical, – until any “peace deal” forces Russia. For Putin and his accomplices, the cost of stopping with hundreds of thousands of murderers returning to communities, with economic decline that can no longer be blamed on the war, and without answers to the question “why was it all?” – is higher than the cost of continuation.
Therefore, the only path to peace – is to change this balance for Russia. To make the cost of continuing the war unbearable.
This means a significant increase in losses on the front and the destruction of war infrastructure in the rear by strengthening support for the Armed Forces.
This is a radical reduction in income and an increase in risks through systematic sanctions against the Russian Federation.
This means depriving attacks on peaceful Ukrainian communities of sense by enhancing air defense/missile defense and deploying repair, replacement and decentralization capabilities for energy and communal infrastructure.
Communicating these three “steps” to partners, convincing them that without this no “peace deal” is possible, – is the top priority for foreign policy.
But they cannot fulfill it, they do not want to engage capabilities. So they feed society stories about a “peace deal” in March and elections – preferably with martial law still in effect, – in May.
But real peace and Europe do not become any closer because of this.
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* peace deal from English – мирна угода.
iPress: Politico described 5 steps for Ukraine’s accession to the EU in 2027
Plans to admit Kyiv to the EU even before all reforms are completed and the Hungarian veto is lifted indicate a significant urgency in Brussels.
Collage: Informator
