What energy truce?! For a week!? What are you talking about?
This is a typical Russian move: they will switch ballistic and cruise missile strikes to other, no less important, targets in Ukraine for a couple of days and then return to terrorist attacks on the energy infrastructure.
And they’ll tell the Americans that no one promised a week and that there was no agreement on a week-long truce. Donald Trump misunderstood their leader.
They will also pressure after the first day of bilateral talks planned for February 1st. So this is at most until the night of February 2nd. And there is a forecast for several days of the strongest frosts in the central part of Ukraine, particularly in Kyiv.
But it works, because everyone will parrot for a few days: “energy truce,” “energy truce,” “energy truce,”… which actually DOESN’T EXIST!
Truce-schmruce.
The story with the “energy truce” is getting new details: who asked whom and about what, how they looked, what they hinted at, what it all means, what it will lead to, and so on.
Meanwhile, the Russians hit the Philip Morris factory in Kharkiv with missiles. Why – unclear. Because it hasn’t been operating for almost 4 years. Apparently, just because they can.
Today, they have already dropped KABs north of Kharkiv, and drones are flying in several areas.
In other words, the war has not gone anywhere. Therefore, let’s note:
1. If Russia slows down with shelling somewhere, it does not mean it slows down with the production of missiles and drones. Accumulation is happening. So no illusions should be harbored.
2. Russia NEVER, absolutely never, makes any concessions without the impact of overpowering force and extreme necessity. There is no charity here.
All “goodwill gestures” from Russia were an act of escape by flight or an exchange. Therefore, do not take literally who initiated the “truce,” who asked whom, and so on. The announced may sharply differ from the real picture.
3. I am convinced that Russia has a reason to ask for an “energy truce.”
This whole story is presented as if frosts will return to Ukraine, and we will stop out of mercy so that Kyiv doesn’t freeze. Although in Russia the frosts are no less, even more. They will come to us and leave, but there they will remain.
So if you look closely at regional news in Russia, you’ll find they have a flood of communal disasters without any combat actions. In Murmansk, the power went out not because of drones and missiles, but because of the weather. In other regions everything is burning and breaking due to dilapidation, overload, barbaric exploitation. Take a look out of interest.
In such conditions, even an incomparably smaller Ukrainian response to Russia’s criminal attacks can undermine several regions. Moscow might not be particularly affected. But the Moscow region might shudder. That won’t add any triumph.
It should not be forgotten that Ukraine receives help. And Russia mainly manages with its own resources. So in winter, this undertaking is not exactly a win-win for the Kremlin.
4. A respite for our people wouldn’t hurt. The space for diplomacy needs to be expanded, that’s clear.
But the main motive for “truces” (energy, grain, Olympic, garden, Easter, etc.) was and will be the presence of Ukrainian military arguments that cause Kremlin pain. This sets the priorities.
