At any given moment, our future is not absolutely determined. In reality, there are infinite possibilities with varying probabilities. Even if you knew all the initial conditions and all the laws, which are guides between causes and effects, you could not know the future precisely. No one, not even Laplace’s demon, can calculate it with absolute precision, even though he, by the way, knows both the initial conditions and the laws that connect causes and effects. This is how complex natural systems are built.
All we can do is attempt to process larger volumes of data and more accurately predict the probability of future possibilities using better theoretical models. Therefore, when an analyst says that something awaits us, he is speaking nonsense. When someone who listened to the analyst later claims “Oh, he was wrong” or “Wow, he predicted it all,” they are also speaking nonsense. An analyst should say: “There are many possibilities for the future. Our theoretical models and our data suggest that the most likely are these options.” That’s it, period, “anything beyond that is from the evil one.”
One can criticize poorly selected data, one can criticize imperfect theoretical models, one can criticize the misunderstanding that there are a lot of future possibilities, but one cannot criticize that the forecast did not come true. This is the world we live in.
Let’s take the consequences of populism as an example.
The data I have, and the worldview models in my head indicate that populism always leads to totalitarianism and imperialism. This is evidenced by the historical data known to me and the socio-psychological patterns of those who abuse populism. Usually, narcissistic sociopaths with deep childhood traumas rally around populist ideas. Populism attracts sociopaths as the most effective tool for obtaining what they desire, primarily direct and indirect power.
Populism is the ideal tool for manipulation and coercion. Narcissists need fame, and individuals with childhood traumas need mass approval. Here, populism becomes the ideal tool for obtaining them. However, sociopathy, narcissism, and childhood traumas can never be completely satisfied. They will always want more and more. But populist ideas do not work in reality. Therefore, to not lose control over the source of “psychic bonuses” and to hide their failures, a totalitarian regime needs to be established. Also, the endless desire for power, glory, and compensation for consequences ignites the need to expand influence, sublimating it into claims against those unlucky enough to live nearby. Thus populism evolves into imperialism with all its ugly accompaniments.
The most terrifying is when sociopathy, narcissism, and childhood traumas meet in one person. Here we have Putin, Trump, Zelensky, Netanyahu, Orbán, Fico…
You might say Zelensky shows no signs of imperialism. Zelensky has a growth problem. He is stuck at the populism phase. His attempts to build a totalitarian system are unfinished not only due to the resistance of a small part of the Ukrainian people or the clumsiness of the executors. He still freezes after each step, waiting for applause from the audience or a favorable smile from Maslyakov. He is stuck in the first phase. This way, you won’t even dream of an empire, nor will you build an effective dictatorship. Although at any moment, this transition can happen.
And such a future is possible in our universe of deterministic chaos.
