Yes, this is again a unique, combined missile strike. And if the first two this year happened, then this is definitely 3.0.
What is unique this time? A record number of ballistic missiles and already 4 Zircon missiles! And when the first two were designed to strike PAC-3 missiles for Patriots, today they hit clearly where they are not. Importantly, they targeted heat generation capacities, not light! In Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Dnipro, such types of power stations were affected.
The short part is over, let’s move on to the detailed one, for those who want to read more. The short version is above, so thank you to those who wait and read 🙂.
I wrote earlier that there would be no energy truce. And although Trump made a deal for a week, and we stopped hitting the border altogether, Peskov constantly got confused about what was going on with the truce. And the numbers, dates, and, indeed, it’s not cold at all in the bunkers.
The roosters awaited the coldest night of this winter. The temperature dropped to minus 26 degrees. And the second factor – to show NATO that they defied them. Yes, such logic is also present in the Kremlin. After all, the whole world knew that NATO Secretary General Rutte would be in Kyiv today. And if he spoke in the Verkhovna Rada early in the morning, couldn’t fly to Kyiv, – it means he was already in Kyiv at night, or traveling by train to Kyiv. That is, he definitely heard the result of the attack. Felt it.
Whenever anyone from the American side visited, there were never any attacks. NATO Secretary General – sure enough.
Regarding the cold, as I wrote in previous analyses, the roosters are in a hurry. And it’s not just what I wrote. Kyrylo Budanov mentioned this when he was head of GUR before the New Year. It’s an opportunity window for the roosters – while the frosts last, they need to “disturb” Ukrainians, show a strong position. This is what we can do, and this will underpin our negotiating position. I like that as head of the Office, he continues to speak maturely. That we need to hold out until spring, that negotiations over Patriot missiles are underway, that although it’s very difficult for large cities, we can’t give up positions in the negotiation process.
Regarding missiles, just think about which ones they didn’t give us after the New Year. What January would have been like if the past two attacks hadn’t set a record for downing ballistic missiles (14 out of 18) and the first mass downing of missiles with a TON warhead of X-32 missiles (this is a unique phenomenon in the global development of missile defense)?! For example, before the previous attack, we had taken down ONLY 3 X-22/32 missiles. THREE missiles out of 412 launched! OUT OF FOUR HUNDRED TWELVE! And a week ago – as many as 9 out of 12 missiles!
This time, there doesn’t seem to be any records; we shot down 11 out of 32 ballistic missiles. You might say, and mathematically you’d be right, but not all of them were flying toward Kyiv today! Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Odesa were affected. And let me remind you about the rotten country, they were targeting purely the thermal power plants, which generate heat, not electricity! This is simply a terrorist act, which can later be proven in international courts as genocide against Ukraine in such frosty conditions!
The record this time was set by the Zircon missiles. Yes, those same hypersonic anti-ship missiles that we hadn’t intercepted in the past. We shot them down in 2024, but only isolated ones, which could be called tests. Previous strikes were tests of land launch systems to avoid using the navy, which is already scarce in the Black Sea. I also mentioned that they launched them from Crimea, as the south of Kyiv was unprotected against them. However, this time, after analysis showed that the Zircons were “passing” from the south, they struck with FOUR missiles at once! This means that two land launch systems conducted a full salvo. But we can also analyze—force and asset relocation occurred, so ALL FOUR ZIRCONS were shot down. I think we can start talking about improvements in the SAMP/T complexes and changes in the algorithms and PAC-3 missiles.
Now the conclusions.
The aggressors are terrorists, no doubt about it. They targeted civilians’ heat supplies exclusively.
We intercepted many missiles considered “uninterceptable” before.
A very large number of Shaheds were taken down—412 out of 450. They couldn’t even launch 500, let alone 1000, which many talked about. This is the work of our special services—HUR, SSU, and SZR.
A record number of intercepted hypersonic Zircons—4 out of 4. Such a massive attack for the first time.
The regular feature—something is not going right in Russia. 7 X-32 missiles were launched instead of 8, based on the number of suspensions on four Tu-22m3. One ended up creating someone a pool in Bryansk Oblast.
Khinzals were not used again, just like in previous times. Either there are problems with the MiG-31K planes, or they’re changing something in the missiles themselves (algorithms, rudders, antennas, etc.). Even though we already intercept Zircons 4 out of 4. There must be something they think surely won’t be intercepted. They’re working on it.
More strikes will come before spring. They don’t just throw billions of dollars into the air instead of fixing something in their cities for no reason. They need to destroy everything here. They don’t care about their populace. To show a map where once again 1000 houses in Kyiv and Kharkiv are without heat—that’s a prestige and respect in Russia. And launching a Tu-95MS from conditional Engels, where there’s no light at all, to strike and plunge half of Troyeshchyna into darkness—that’s it. The nature of a rotten country.
The main thing is that we endured this blow too. It’s painful, but we’re holding on. It’s easier for Kyiv today, but very difficult for Kharkiv and Dnipro. Let’s hold on!
And once again I’d like to note that if it weren’t for our Air Defense Gods, it would have been much worse!
On the night of February 3, Russian occupiers launched another massive combined strike on Ukraine, choosing energy infrastructure facilities as the main targets. This strike also set a sad record.
Russian forces used a record number of ballistic means of destruction during one missile strike – 32 missiles.
I would like to note that in January 2025, the enemy used 28 ballistic 9M723 missiles throughout the month, while last night a stock of ballistic means of destruction exceeding the monthly figure from a year earlier was used against Ukraine.
Obviously, Russia prepared for this strike, accumulating and concentrating the necessary ammunition, including taking advantage of the so-called “energy truce” solely for their predatory purposes.
I want to point out that the enemy used such missile means with a certain time gap:
- X-101/9M727/9M728 (Iskander-K) – 28 missiles were used, of which 20 were shot down. The last time X-101 missiles were used by the Russians was on the night of January 20, and 9M727/9M728 (Iskander-K) on the night of January 13;
- X-22/32 – the enemy used 7 missiles, 3 of which were shot down. The last time X-22/32 missiles were used was on the night of January 24 – 12 missiles, of which 9 were shot down;
- 3M22 “Zircon” – 4 missiles, 2 shot down. These missiles were last used on the night of January 24.
This strike suggests not only the process of accumulation, which took from one and a half to two and a half weeks for a number of items, but also that Russia tried to make it as destructive as possible by using not only a record number of ballistic missiles but also X-22/32, which have the most powerful warhead weighing a ton, as well as employing rare, unique, and very complex and expensive to produce 3M22 “Zircon”.
This missile strike is not only another fact of war crime and genocide against the Ukrainian people but not even a slap, rather a spit in the face of Donald Trump, who talks about a week-long truce, Russia’s proximity to a “deal”, and in fact… In fact, as expected, the genocide continues as Ukraine is once again engulfed in frosts of −20-25°C.
But, you know what’s most dangerous in this situation?
The most dangerous thing is that if the White House does not respond to this next act of genocide appropriately, and continues to simulate a very “good” and very “successful” peacekeeping diplomacy, these strikes may turn into controlled terror.
I didn’t just mention the time lags above for no reason. The pauses by Russia are maintained according to its capabilities to produce and prepare ammunition. Meanwhile, during the “energy truce” since January 28, I didn’t notice any strikes on the deep rear areas of Russia.
During this time, Russia used:
- January 29 – 105 drones on rear Ukraine and civilian objects;
- January 30 – 111 drones and a 9M723 ballistic missile;
- January 31 – 85 drones;
- February 1 – 90 drones;
- February 2 – 171 drones and a 9M723 ballistic missile;
During this period, Rashists struck the maternity hospital in Zaporizhzhia, killed miners in the Dnipropetrovsk region, continued shelling Kharkiv, terrorized Kherson, etc.
Previously, air raid sirens sounded every night over Russian regions and districts, and the sight of burning objects a thousand kilometers away pleased sleepless eyes, but since January 28, there has been no such evidence.
Our enemy has not only not stopped the genocide of Ukrainians during the pseudo-truce but has also accumulated resources to deliver even more destructive blows, making this terror more controlled and safe for themselves.
