Timothy Ash / Translation by iPress
The Senior Strategist at RBC BlueBay Asset Management and an Associate Fellow at Chatham House, Timothy Ash, claims that Donald Trump’s administration’s recent actions regarding Ukraine and Russia have drastically heightened tensions within NATO. He believes that Volodymyr Zelensky has decided to openly appeal to American society and primarily rely on Europe’s support, even at the risk of further deteriorating relations with Washington. Ash also criticizes the potential unfreezing of part of Russia’s Central Bank assets and accuses European governments of years of indecision regarding their confiscation. The main conclusion is that Trump’s policy, in Ash’s opinion, has brought NATO to a dangerous brink of internal division, which benefits Russia and China.
It seems that Zelensky is no longer holding back in his criticism of Trump and directly accuses the US president of fully siding with Putin: canceling the ban on Russian diesel fuel, depriving Ukraine of access to Starlink, halting intelligence sharing with them, and, according to some reports, possibly unfreezing $100 billion in blocked Russian Central Bank assets for Russia’s use in any ceasefire agreement.
Let’s call a spade a spade: this means that due to Trump’s actions, Ukrainians are likely to die.
In this way, Zelensky is appealing to Americans, bypassing Trump and directly accusing him of betrayal.
For Zelensky, this is a game with extremely high stakes, as Trump could respond by even more resolutely siding with Putin. This could mean a complete cessation of military support, lifting sanctions, and pressuring European allies to do the same.
It seems Zelensky has decided that, regardless of Trump’s actions, Ukraine has no choice but to continue fighting, assuming that European states will stay by its side. I believe they will, as for Europe, Ukraine’s survival in the face of Russian aggression is now more important than US support. Europe has no choice but to continue supporting Ukraine: the longer Ukraine holds out, the more time Europe gains to build its own autonomous defense capability to counter the long-term and existential threat from Russia amid the gradual withdrawal of American security guarantees for Europe.
Zelensky is betting that openly challenging Trump will eventually make him back down – following the logic of TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out), while European allies remain close.
But let’s not deceive ourselves: NATO is already on the brink of division – this is what Trump has brought the Alliance to. Trump has pushed NATO to the verge of a breakup over Ukraine, and this is a huge win for Putin and China.
Zelensky hopes that in the end, Trump will not want to go down in history as the US president who broke NATO – the most successful defense alliance in history.
Reports that Vitkoff and Kushner offered Russia to unfreeze $100 billion in blocked Russian Central Bank assets as an incentive to adhere to the ceasefire regime is yet another striking example of unilateral actions by the Trump administration against the wishes and interests of the allies. And this is another reward for the aggressor – Russia. But I would also add that this situation is a sad testament to Europe’s inaction, which over the past four years has essentially stalled on doing almost nothing to transition from merely blocking assets to their legal freezing, confiscation, and transfer to Ukraine. Due to Europe’s inaction on the Russian Central Bank assets issue, it is now held hostage by the arbitrary actions of the Trump administration. Bravo, Belgium!
And when it comes to the frozen Russian Central Bank assets, the issue has never really been purely about legal or economic aspects – the associated risks were always exaggerated, even though they could have been managed. The problem was in politics and leadership, which Europe sadly lacked.
