Unfortunately, the U.S. elections will change little for Ukraine – we are facing tough swings until the change of the American president in 2028.
The license for Russian diesel issued by the Ministry of Finance on October 9 is actually a pivotal point for all future American policy. Even now, six Republican senators along with Democrats claim that the law was violated, while opponents call it “Trump’s unconventional thinking.”
The situation will start to mirror the relocation of the American embassy to Jerusalem, which American presidents delayed every six months to avoid implementing the law. This was postponed for several decades!
If Republicans retain both chambers (current forecasts are unfavorable), the diesel license will calmly last until April and will likely start to expand – with public scandals.
If Democrats only take the House of Representatives, committee heads will emerge who will begin to summon the license authors to hearings, Ukraine-related bills will go to vote without petitions, and no budget will pass without the House, although these bills will be halted in the Senate, and the president will not need to veto anything.
If Democrats take both chambers (and that is the current forecast in the Silver Bulletin), sanction bills will start reaching Trump’s desk, and each time he will publicly decide whether to sign or veto them. This will happen when Republicans are already thinking about the 2028 elections, in which Trump will not be able to run. The Democrats cannot overcome a veto without fifteen Republican senators, but vetoing sanctions against Russia a year before the election campaign is a dubious pleasure.
A president whose opposition Congress blocks laws usually resorts to what Obama called “I have a pen, and I have a phone,” meaning executive orders, licenses, and agreements circumventing Congress. For example, the phone to Putin has already turned out to be the shortest route to “cheap” diesel. Democrats will begin using Ukraine as an argument against the president, and we risk becoming even more “foreign” to Republican voters. Therefore, the coalition that supported the voting on the sanctions of 2017 and 2026 may crumble. This, in broad strokes.
Of course, in the event of a loss, each subsequent concession to Russia will cost Trump hearings, votes, and possibly vetoes, for which he will have to answer to his own party.
But this will only intensify aggression against Ukraine, provoke constant criticism, demands for elections, and so on. We need to prepare for two long years of increased public pressure against Ukraine, where even friends will start to tire and seek to switch to other matters quickly.
So we must be resilient and believe in the Armed Forces!
Illustration: Eugen Wais/Library of Congress
