Well, a great offer: only today and only with us, another (Easter, Grain, Christmas, Energy) truce. This time even more unique: Ukraine does not hit the refineries in the European part of the Russian Federation (all of them were either damaged or still damaged, and fuel transportation by Russian Railways in September hit a historic low). And in return, the Russian Federation does not hit two Ukrainian refineries — one in the occupied territory and one barely surviving after dozens of strikes.
Unable now to knock out our storage, or of course, processing in the EU, or refueling (Russia hit 6%, most already repaired), they decided to run to Trump and complain. And how Putin was breathing recently in Valdai: “here you go, fascist, a grenade through the Black Sea blockade.”
Maybe we will also sign strict guarantees that we are categorically forbidden to strike with long-range Western weapons at their airfields in Engels and Mozdok, so as not to, heaven forbid, “provoke World War III.” And they, well, okay, will make a gesture of goodwill: they will promise to launch three-tonne cabs and ballistics at our residential areas exclusively from their airspace. Ideal parity, sign in blood.
We could also agree on the navy and ecology. We take on concrete obligations not to sink the remnants of their Black Sea Fleet with sea drones, because burnt cruisers harm dolphin migration and upset global insurance companies. And in return, they graciously allow us to export grain. Which we already export under fire, losing people in the ports.
But the Ginger Sun of Democracy, a friend of all Iranian protesters and the person who agreed with Kim Jong Un to stop creating WMDs, has offered us a new deal. A spectacular, brilliant, the best in the world agreement—almost like a promise to build a casino in Gaza and a threat to destroy civilization in Iran. And the stories that oil prices are rising because more crude oil from the Russian Federation is entering the market (because the Defense Forces knocked out up to 40% of Russian processing), intensified precisely after the conversation with Putin.
I’m always skeptical of stories about agent Krasnov—the Occam’s razor tells us not to explain foolish statements with anything other than foolishness. Well, he wanted to play the Ukrainian card again before the Senate elections—last time “sleepy Joe and Obama gave us hundreds of billions” and the war started because of them; this time Zelensky is to blame. The old grandfather no longer remembers what he said a few months ago. The nuclear electorate will still remember: ours agreed and lowered diesel prices.
But the rhetoric about Ukrainian strikes on refineries and their impact on the global oil market is appealing to me. Additionally, the attacks by the Defense Forces on Yandex data centers have increased chip prices. Now, the nearest opportunity to buy racks, memory sticks, and graphics processors is in 2028. As a result, customer databases, card transactions at “Vkusno — i tochka,” CRM, and smart home systems won’t be functioning properly anytime soon.
Is it necessary to hang a “sarcasm” sign here and explain that it’s the development of AI and crypto that caused what’s happening in the market now, and not any strikes?
But let’s not stop; this brilliant logic of macroeconomic idiocy needs to be developed! Ukrainian drone attacks on distilleries near Voronezh probably triggered the fall of the Dow Jones index and a depression on Wall Street.
Shot-down Shaheds over Bryansk disrupted the global wind patterns, causing a crop failure in Texas and Mexican migrants getting confused about the direction. Just a few more successful missile hits on Russian ammunition depots, and we’ll be seriously told from the podium that the detonation in Toropets caused global warming, a lithium shortage for Elon Musk’s electric cars, and a 12-cent increase in cheeseburger prices in Iowa!
It turns out it’s not the global economy relying on China and a few operations in oil-rich regions: Yemen, Venezuela, the Iran blockade. The entire global order, inflation, and American credit rates depend solely on ensuring that a Ukrainian drone doesn’t accidentally scratch a transformer booth near Syzran. Otherwise, it’s the end of the world, a trade embargo, and a locust invasion.
Constant targeting of Ukrainian metallurgy doesn’t affect global prices, but a scratched fuel oil tank near Ryazan is a geopolitical crisis, an attack on the American trucker’s wallet, and a personal insult to the White House.
And here the question fully arises: what’s the deal with Trump in general? He must clearly understand that the problem with the elections in Ukraine cannot be resolved. And the issue isn’t just that nearly a million people are in the Armed Forces, with hundreds of thousands of civilians near military zones. How will you conduct campaigning? Will you go to Kherson or Kupyansk, run away from FPV, waving your hands at it—everyone remembers the teenage cyclist, severely injured or killed by a Russian operator. How will you transport the ballots from there? How will you rotate the commissions?
What ceasefire are you talking about, if in the morning you talk about an energy truce (which no one heard about), in the evening the Kharkiv CHPP-5 is hit, and in the morning it turns out it’s only about the refineries? While they have queues and shortages, we don’t.
Plus, the issue isn’t about Zelensky at all. Does anyone seriously think that Poroshenko, Zaluzhny, or Budanov, in the event of their hypothetical victory, will give up Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the Fortress Belt without a fight, order the army to retreat to the fields near Barvinkove just to get promises of guarantees on the back of the Budapest Memorandum? The same ones that Gulf countries recently received in the war with Iran: “You can buy missile interceptors for $7 million each, but they’re not on the market. Have a nice day! The U.S. base in Qatar protects itself. Stay on the line, your call is very important to us!”
Any such “agreement” is a classic shell game at the train station square. They offer us to exchange our real right to self-defense for their promise to kill us a little slower. We bind our hands, they gain a respite to accumulate missiles, and Western “peacekeepers” get a beautiful photoshoot in Geneva, a Nobel Peace Prize, and cheap diesel at the pumps.
Thus, the ending of this story is very simple. All this fuss about “peace plans”, energy truces, and cheap Russian diesel is not about saving Ukraine. It’s only about an attempt to buy themselves a bit more comfortable sleep at our expense. To wrap our capitulation in a beautiful wrapper so that it doesn’t spoil pre-election ratings or hinder doing business.
But the problem with all these brilliant geopolitical schemers is that we won’t play this game. We simply don’t have the option to “retreat to the fields and wait” because beyond those fields are our families, our cities, and our lives.
You can withdraw all strategic bombers from Europe, supposedly frightened by cheap drones. You can quarrel with the EU over tariffs. You can call the Kremlin every day, play the “Ukrainian card” and negotiate for diesel for farmers. But this won’t change the harsh reality. Because when survival is at stake, yours and everyone you love, you absolutely don’t care how many cents a gallon of gasoline in Iowa increases by.
Collage: Channel 24
