It has long been noted that Russian aggressors live in a parallel world that they themselves create and then believe in.
If they set any demands for ending the war, they primarily think within their paradigm. Therefore, in reality, it is possible to find the key conditions for ending the war based on the enemy’s logic.
You take their demands, “reverse” them concerning Ukraine’s goals and actions – and you have the key conditions for victory.
The root causes of the war from the aggressor’s point of view:
- Preventing Ukraine’s membership in NATO.
Therefore, a clear signal and steps towards Ukraine’s membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the irreversibility of this process are needed; - Preventing Ukraine’s integration with European Union countries.
Thus, membership in the EU and decisive reform steps in Ukraine are necessary for the fastest possible accession process; - Claims on “historical Russian lands,” including the sacred Sevastopol and Crimea.
It is necessary to prevent legal decisions recognizing the illegal annexation of Crimea; to prevent its functioning as a “Russian aircraft carrier that cannot be sunk,” and finally to show the obvious: the peninsula cannot exist without a connection to the mainland; the Autonomous Republic of Crimea can successfully develop only as part of Ukraine and eventually the European Union. - Demilitarization – forcing Ukraine and its partners to destroy Ukraine’s self-defense capabilities through disarmament, restrictions, and so-called “permanent neutrality.”
What needs to be done? Deprive the Russian invaders of offensive capabilities: destroy their troops faster than they can replace them; establish balance in equipment and gain advantages through technological robotic systems using artificial intelligence. - Preventing Ukraine from obtaining deterrent weapons.
On the contrary, efforts should be made to create a “missile shield and sword.” Clearly, without the production of its systems and interceptor missiles and the scaling of medium- and short-range ballistic missiles, this will not work…
You can continue this list further (as it constantly changes on their side), reverse it — and this will be the formula for victory.
But at the end of Russia’s list, there will still be: destroy our country and the people of Ukraine…
Therefore, the formula for ultimate victory in this existential confrontation is only one: the destruction of the Russian regime, the deprivation of Russian expansionists’ desire to seize anything else, and if there are no changes, the dissolution of this aggressive federation. This is viewing it realistically. However, the scenarios, timelines of the confrontation, its intensity, and the position and role of global actors can vary.
Illustration: Vadym Blonsky
