Sergei Ivanov became not just the first deceased among Putin’s closest associates. He was also the closest ally who completely lost the bureaucratic struggle.
The person who was considered at the beginning of the millennium as a possible successor to Putin as President of Russia dies unwanted, without any serious position in the Russian leadership, removed from the permanent members of the Security Council of the Russian Federation a few months before his death.
When Ivanov lost the succession battle to Medvedev, almost all observers viewed it as a loss for the hawks who wanted change in Russia after Putin. This was an absolute illusion.
In fact, choosing Medvedev was the choice of a hawk, who even then held much tougher positions in foreign policy than Putin himself and literally raged at Security Council meetings. The fact that the war in Georgia began during Medvedev’s presidency is a direct consequence of Putin’s choice. Well, after that, there were no alternatives.
Sergei Ivanov was a representative of that part of the security forces who pushed Putin and the elites towards more cautious, diversionary political means of influencing the former Soviet republics. Therefore, after Putin’s return to the Kremlin, he could only perform ceremonial duties, and his influence steadily decreased. But he sought other ways to exert pressure — including on Ukraine — literally until February 2022. At the Security Council meeting where Putin demanded loyalty and support for the idea of recognizing the independence of the so-called people’s republics — that is, war — he simply did not speak. In reality, that was the end.
I won’t say that if Ivanov’s line had prevailed, it would have been easier for us. The Kremlin’s desire to subjugate Ukraine would not have disappeared, and it is often more challenging to oppose a saboteur than a butcher. However, the fact that the person who hoped to subdue neighbors with a scalpel lost to those who proposed a sledgehammer speaks volumes — in terms of understanding the processes of the past decades.
Photo: Occupier’s media
