Glory to Ukraine!
Glory to the defenders of Ukraine and the entire modern civilization!
Today in the release:
- War with Iran: ceasefire, negotiations, its impact on the economy and politics in the USA and the world
- Extension of the emergency situation for a year due to Russia’s malicious harmful actions against the national interests of the USA, their allies and partners
- Have the sanctions against Russian oil resumed?
- Elections in Hungary
▶ On Tuesday morning, the 47th president threatened in a tweet that by the same evening he would completely destroy the entire Iranian civilization. However, on Tuesday evening, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire and the start of negotiations.
On Wednesday, the war between the US and Israel on one side and Iran on the other was partially halted. Partially, because the Iranian proxy army in Lebanon – Hezbollah, continues rocket attacks on Israel and attacks Israel with drones. In response, Israel continues military actions against Hezbollah, attacking its facilities in Lebanon and conducting a military operation in southern Lebanon.
On Saturday, negotiations between the US and Iran began in Pakistan, lasting for 15 hours. The negotiations will continue on Sunday. The US is represented at the negotiations by Vice President Vance and de facto collective Secretary of State – the president’s friend Vitkoff and the president’s son-in-law Kushner. The nominal Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Rubio, as has become usual for the second Trump administration, does not participate in any important diplomatic negotiations. For the first time since 2015, high-ranking American and Iranian representatives (the Iranian delegation is headed by Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf) are speaking to each other, not through intermediaries.
The 47th president told journalists that he doesn’t care if any agreement is reached in the negotiations, since “we have completely defeated this country” (Iran), “from America’s point of view, we won.”
Two American ships have started demining the Strait of Hormuz. But navigation through the strait is still “artificial.” On Friday, 9 ships passed through the strait. Before the war, more than a hundred ships a day passed through it.
So, the war directly with Iran has been stopped. It can be highly likely assumed that no matter how the US-Iran negotiations end, the war is unlikely to resume. This is because continuing the war would lead to high oil prices, high fuel costs, inflation spiraling, economic problems in all developed countries, including the USA, related to economic slowdown due to the high cost of all types of energy, increased production costs due to rising prices for energy and components, and so on. The 47th president cannot afford any of this. There is much he does not know and understand. But he cannot fail to understand that all these phenomena lead the Republican party to a crushing defeat in the Congress elections on November 3. The situation can only be turned around by stopping the spiral of inflation and all negative economic phenomena.
On Friday, the Bureau of Statistics of the Ministry of Labor published inflation data for March. It was 3.3%, while in February it was 2.4%. The price of gasoline in the USA rose by 21.4% during March – the sharpest monthly increase in the last 60 years.
One can laugh at the price of gasoline as an indicator of American sentiment, but in reality, this indicator should be taken very seriously. For all Americans, except residents of a few largest cities, the car is the main or only means of transportation. If a family has two cars, if they need to be fueled every week, and if refueling a full tank costs $18-20 more than before February 28, then the mood of average people forced to throw out an unplanned $150 a month from the family budget (and this is a minimum estimate) is quite obvious: the authority is to blame. And the authority is the president, who promised to end US involvement in wars and lower gasoline prices, and the Republicans with their majority in Congress. And if the authority is to blame, then in the elections, one should vote against the authority. This logic always operates in the USA (just remember a similar situation in 2006, when the war in Iraq led to rising oil prices, inflation spiral, and economic crisis, resulting in a crushing defeat of Republicans in the Congress elections and loss of their majority in both houses).
Can any conclusions be drawn about the war? If one knows its goal, then in principle, it can be. Here, the obvious goal was regime change in Iran. Did it happen? No.
No matter how many times Trump said the regime changed. The elimination of some members of the “politburo” did not lead to a regime change. It remained in place. The composition of the “politburo” changed somewhat.
One doesn’t even need to count how many Soviet politburo compositions changed from 1917 to 1985, but the regime remained the same – cannibalistic. It could be more cannibalistic under Stalin, less after him, but by its nature, it was always cannibalistic.
Regime change in Iran did not occur, and therefore the set goal was not achieved.
Moreover, something happened that Trump neglected despite his own intelligence warnings – Iran’s blockade of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in 20% of the world’s oil imports being unable to reach consumers. Neither can liquefied gas from Qatar – the third-largest exporter of liquefied gas worldwide.
Counting how many ships, planes, air defense systems, missiles, and military factories Iran has lost cannot replace the fact that the war’s goal was not achieved. The theocratic regime, a strict ideological dictatorship, remains in power in Iran. It is entirely impossible to exclude the possibility that if negotiations fail to reach any agreement, the regime will strive to restore its military potential and retain the potential ability to create nuclear weapons. Nearly 500 kg of enriched uranium, which Iran possesses, have not gone away, no matter how many times Trump repeats that Iran’s nuclear program has been destroyed, or how many intelligence leaders he has fired (like the military intelligence director last summer) for contradicting his assertions.
The best achievable outcome in negotiations with Iran is an agreement like the JCPOA, reached in 2015, from which Trump withdrew in 2018. This agreement made it impossible for Iran to develop nuclear weapons – all its nuclear facilities were under strict IAEA control, Iran did not enrich uranium, and the enriched uranium it had was removed from the country (it was transferred to Russia, according to the agreement). In 2018, Trump withdrew from the agreement, and Iran stopped adhering to it, resuming uranium enrichment.
There are currently no specific, real reports on how the negotiations in Pakistan are progressing, or if any progress has been made. Therefore, we will continue to monitor the situation.
UPD Sunday, April 12, 0:05 EDT. Negotiations in Pakistan ended without result. As reported by Reuters:
“The bad news is that we did not reach an agreement; and I believe this is bad news more for Iran than for the United States of America,” Vance told reporters after the negotiations concluded. “So, we are returning to the United States without coming to an agreement. We have made our ‘red lines’ very clear.”
▶ A document quietly and with minimal publicity appeared in the federal government’s registry, signed by Donald Trump on March 26, 2026 — an order to extend from April 15, 2026, to April 15, 2027, Biden’s April 15, 2021, Executive Order 14024 regarding a national emergency in response to the malicious actions of the Russian Federation’s government against the national interests of the United States, their allies, and partners.
This means that all sanctions imposed on the empire of evil since April 15, 2021, under Biden’s order, are automatically extended for a year. The mechanism for imposing new sanctions also remains in effect.
I wonder if Trump read what he signed:
“The mentioned malicious foreign actions of the Russian Federation’s government — particularly efforts aimed at undermining the process of conducting free and fair democratic elections, as well as democratic institutions in the United States and their allies and partners; conducting and supporting malicious cyber activities against the United States and their allies and partners; fostering and using transnational corruption to influence foreign governments; undertaking extraterritorial actions against dissidents or journalists; undermining security in countries and regions significant to the national security of the United States; as well as violating universally recognized principles of international law, including respect for the territorial integrity of states — continue to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States. For this reason, the national emergency declared in Executive Order No. 14024 (the scope of which was expanded in Executive Order No. 14066 and with additional measures taken in Executive Orders No. 14039, 14068, 14071, 14114, 14329, and 14384) must remain in effect beyond April 15, 2026.”
“In connection with this, pursuant to Section 202(d) of the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1622(d)), I am extending for one year the national emergency declared in Executive Order No. 14024.”
He probably didn’t read it, of course. But if he did, signing it felt like swallowing a very bitter pill without water.
▶ On Saturday, the OFAC — the Office of Foreign Assets Control of the U.S. Department of the Treasury — license for the temporary lifting of sanctions on operations related to trading Russian oil already in tankers at sea expired. As of Saturday evening, this general license had not been extended. If it is not extended, the sanctions will come back into effect.
Putin’s emissary Dmitriev, meanwhile, has arrived in Washington again. Most likely, he has been tasked with negotiating the extension of this general license. And, of course, to once again tell his interlocutors about the $12 trillion that the 47th president and his friends and partners will earn on “business projects” in Russia if only they help force Ukraine to accept Russian conditions, that is, to capitulate, and lift sanctions.
▶ On Sunday, elections will be held in Hungary. These elections are of the utmost importance for the entire world, for the liberal-democratic civilization. The US Vice President Vance came to Budapest for two days specifically to support Orban. Open support for the ultra-right in elections in other countries is an unprecedented aspect of the American administration’s policy. In modern times, before Trump came to power, the US never openly supported anyone in elections in other countries, did not interfere in their electoral process.
Orban’s victory would not only cement his power and finally turn Hungary into an authoritarian state, with a government acting as a Russian Trojan horse in the EU and NATO. Such a victory would empower all European ultra-right, anti-European, anti-democratic, anti-liberal forces in all EU countries. Such a victory would also empower American ultra-right, dreaming with Putin of weakening and destroying the EU.
Therefore, I very much wish success to the opposition leader Peter Magyar and his party TISZA, which according to the latest polls, is leading Orban’s FIDESZ party by 11%: 50%-39%.
The victory of the Hungarian opposition would be a big victory for liberal-democratic forces worldwide.
Exactly 1015 days remain until the end of the story titled “Fear: Trump in the White House” © (title of Bob Woodward’s book, published in 2018).
Thank you to everyone who read this. Take care of yourself and your loved ones. Take care of each other, help each other. Health to all.
Ultimately, what happens in the world depends on us. Whether we fight evil, do Good, remain mere spectators, passively wait and believe that someone somewhere will decide something for us, or fight evil and do everything possible for Good to triumph.
We must not allow evil to prevail. The victory of evil will mean the end of the world as we know it. We cannot allow this to happen. Especially now.
Ukrainian Friends, I embrace and love you all. Please take care of each other.
Ukraine is and always will be.
And evil will be defeated and punished. And it is inevitable.
